10/31/08 at 2:22 PM
(Charlie Neibergall / AP)
If you'd fallen asleep on Nov. 2, 2004 and awoken, a la
Rip Van Winkle, on Oct. 31, 2008, you'd be forgiven for thinking that
Iowa is a battleground state. For starters, it flipped from blue to red
in 2004. So you'd assume it could swing again. Then you'd check the
papers. "Obama Rallies 25,000 is Des Moines" one headline would read; "McCain Chief Claims Iowa 'Dead-Even,'" would read another. At that point, you'd be crazy not to conclude that the Hawkeye State is, yet again, too close to call.
The only problem? It's not.
at least there's not a single shred of scientific evidence that it is.
On Jan. 3, the Hawkeye State caucuses catapulted Obama into contention
and nearly torpedoed McCain, who committed the cardinal Corn Belt
opposing ethanol subsidies. So it's long been clear which candidate
Iowans prefer. Since July 10, only four polls--out of nearly 20--have
shown Obama leading McCain by less than 10 points. Of those, only o...