In November, I met with an executive at one of the private-equity firms that has sprung up in Beijing. He talked up the firm's investments in energy software and mobile communications. But exporters? He wouldn't touch them.
The fact that China's smart money is now looking inward and avoiding the sector that brought it so much growth in recent years highlights a new trend that is likely to continue and spread next year. For the past few decades, goods, services, and people have been whizzing around the world at ever-greater speeds and over ever-greater distances. The presumption was that this was the most efficient way to organize the globe's economic affairs. But a backlash has set in, motivated by economics, politics, and the shift of wealth from West to East. As a result, it seems we are now experiencing a round of deglobalization.
In the months after September 2008, pretty much every metric that testified to the growing interconnectedness of the global economy fell off a cliff. The Inter-American Development Bank in August reported that remittances from Latin American and Caribbean expats would fall 11 percent in 2009, back to the level of 2006. The International Monetary Fund projects that the volume of world trade in goods and services will plummet nearly 12 percent this year.
Of course, you'd expect such developments when the global economy shrinks, as it did in 2009 for the first time since 1944. But the sharp decline in trade was far larger than the small drop in global economic output. For it turns out that many aspects of globalization were leveraged. Exports, currency trading, and cross-border investment were fueled by debt and credit. In the U.S., a key magnet for exported goods, consumption was stoked by borrowing and the booming housing market. And the path of goods and services has been greased by commercial paper and trade finance—the boring plumbing of the global economy. When credit markets seized up in the fall of 2008, it threw a wrench in the machinery.
While trade has rebounded from its lows, the volume is nowhere near its peak. In September, the combined total of U.S. imports and exports was 24 percent below the level of July 2008. Countries stung by the sudden drop-off in demand from foreign buyers have realized that they can no longer simply export their way to prosperity. (China's exports fell 23 percent between August 2008 and August 2009.) Smart investors are channeling resources to companies that produce domestic goods for domestic markets.
There's also a greater appreciation on the part of Western firms that cheap labor isn't the be-all and end-all. Businesses have learned in the past two years that the longer the supply chain, the more possibilities there are for disruptions—from viruses, geopolitical disturbances, and spikes in energy prices. While China is still the world's factory, in an age of volatile demand some companies have realized that manufacturing closer to home is more efficient, even if production costs are higher.
Politics is also playing a role in deglobalization. The plunge into recession triggered a predictable set of protectionist responses. Developed economies in Asia, Europe, and North America have erected new tariffs, offered subsidies to exporters, stipulated that stimulus funds be spent locally, and provided special support to homegrown banks and automakers. This trend has led American and foreign companies alike to reconsider the way they've approached the vast U.S. market, especially in areas that are getting a boost from the government: energy, finance, automaking. For example, Suzlon and Vestas, Indian and Danish wind-turbine makers, respectively, are making massive investments in U.S. manufacturing not only because it's expensive to ship turbines long distances, but also in order to be perceived as "American" to state and federal officials involved in funding green projects.
Indeed, to a degree, the process through which the U.S. exported jobs is now being inverted. In November, Ted Strickland, the governor of Ohio, one of the states hit hardest by globalization, showed up at a corporate campus in Milford, a suburb of Cincinnati, to celebrate the fact that Tata Consultancy Services, the Indian outsourcing giant, now employs 300 workers at its North America Domestic Delivery Center. The outsourcer has become an insourcer. Perhaps we're not seeing deglobalization, but rather reglobalization.