Darker Days Ahead?

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  • Posted By: bodogster @ 01/27/2008 9:53:25 AM

    As usual, a post mortem. He is like the NY Times that has not penned a warning since 2002, but now is explaining what went wrong. We live in a retrospective economic world because we are too lazy and ignorant to question the economic system. And that is why Americans continue to misunderstand the centrality of gold as money in a fiat currency world economy. It is not a matter of a stock market panic but a financial one. There is chaos just ahead.

  • Posted By: tripp529 @ 01/26/2008 11:11:56 AM

    I'd like to see a copy of George bush's IQ scores next to Bill Clinton's IQ scores.

  • Posted By: davis123 @ 01/25/2008 8:28:38 PM

    RR is a pretty confused guy, suffering from some sort of economic shizophrenia. He starts off arguing the economy, throws out the term Depression - while offering no economic evidence to justify any use of the word. Then - suddenly - all of his arguments are about the Stock Market - not the economy, then they morph into the same thing. He then proceeds to state diametrcally opposed arguments to support a single theory - that money in the pocket is the key, but then no - it really is people's future behavior! Then tops that off by vaguely discussing how the US market isn't fully decoupled from the rest of the world markets (instead of the other way around!). Whew! C'mon, Bob - even non-famous PhD's know that behavior is changed by expectations, and expectations are about what is likely to happen in the future - not money in the pocket today. And 'frittering away' money on breaks to 'investors' - rather than being wasted - actually DOES manage expectations on the future risk profile of the market. Which should be important to you, since you keep confusing the economy and the stock market. Fortunately for you the standards for economic diatribe have (apparently)ngone down at Berkeley of late! The only point he actually gets right (perhaps by accident) is the payroll tax, which is the biggest choking factor by far on our economic engine. Wow! This is all I can say.

    • Posted By: taliesien @ 01/26/2008 8:54:05 AM

      Davis123's critique of RR is a bit off the mark--for instance the collapsing housing bubble has created a decline so deep that to find a parallel decline---O, let's see...we have to go back and back to the DEPRESSION to match such a decline. And the Bush Administration and our Federal watchdogs have been fiddling away in their religious belief in corporate socialisistic welfare and trickle down economics. The Bushian hidden theological belief that God is a Capitalist and Jesus saves by means of permanent tax cuts to the wealthy is heretical, totally bereft of logic, if not slightly mad.

  • Posted By: carnabylane @ 01/25/2008 8:52:55 AM

    Once again Americans are stupid enough to buy into the Bush administrations lies. Everything is not alright and as long as this group of Bozos remains in office it won't be. They have succeeded in destroying the economy, the environment and any chance for world peace in the near future. I refuse to spend a dime on anything beyond necessities while Bush remains in office. I took all my funds out of the stock market immediately upon his election in 2000. I didn't trust he and Cheney then and they done nothing but destroy my confidence in government and the peoples ability to choose good leaders since.

    • Posted By: faminchin @ 01/26/2008 8:14:25 AM

      Did you know there is a website, been up and running for over 5 years now...offering $5,000 to anyone that can document a single lie Bush has told. For 5 years, they haven't had a single person able to document a single lie......unlike Mr. Clinton, who had to go on national tv and try to redefine the word "is".

      You should try pulling your head out of that donkey's butt and take a look around once in awhile!

  • Posted By: faminchin @ 01/26/2008 8:10:48 AM

    Why does the media continue to drag all of these ex-clintonite's before us with their projections of doom? It's like they think these ex-clintionite's are the only experts or something? We already know what they are going to say before they speak. They all sound like a broken record...."The world is doomed, unless you vote for Democrats".

  • Posted By: Boka @ 01/25/2008 10:58:14 AM

    As long as Americans go in to debt to buy stuff they don't need then the economy will be fine.

  • Posted By: tripp529 @ 01/24/2008 10:09:23 PM

    By the way Nikita Kruchev once said "The communists will sell the capitalists enough rope to hang themselves with'" and that's exactly what the Chineese are doing. Who opened the door to China ? Richard Nixon another make the rich richer right winger.

  • Posted By: jrgfla @ 01/24/2008 6:52:54 PM

    Thank you. I don't think we all realized how evil Ronald Regan was and how stupid the American public was. Imagine the prosperity we could all be sharing if we had re-elected Jimmy Carter.

  • Posted By: tripp529 @ 01/24/2008 4:39:07 PM

    We owe all of our financial woes on Ronald Reagan and reaganomics and the trickle down theory. All of the banking safeguards installed after the great depression were rolled back by Reagan and his cronies. Protections such as not allowing big banks to expand beyond state borders in order to prevent the problems we now have of having all our eggs in one basket , this has allowed the growth of mega banks which are now in trouble and will take out huge portions of our economy as they fail. Protections such as caps on interest rates that banks are able to charge which used to be capped at 12%, but now are capped at 30% or more, this encourages lendin speculation with the promise of huge returns, but in reality create much more risk to the system. Protections such as not allowing banks to dabble in risky ventures such as investing in the stock market or allowing them to sell stocks and bonds. Reagan's deregulation of the banking industry has brought us to the brink of the next great depression and we are teetering over the edge.
    The only thing Reagonomics and his tax cutting hacks have accomplished has been the concentration of wealth ito the hands of the modern day robber barron's and not since the great depression has the concentration of wealth been so lopsided.
    According to Ronald Reagan prosperity will trickle down from the rich to the poor under reaganomics, but the truth is the rich cannot devise enough ways to spend they're ill gotten gain and the trickle has stopped.
    Ronald Reagan and his desciples have accomplished one thing only and that is the greatest transfer of wealth in history from the poor and middle-class to the rich. Ronald Reagan the great orator will go down in history as the architect of the second great depression and the world will finally realize that the tax cutting montra of the right wing has brought us the greatest banking collapse in history.

  • Posted By: tripp529 @ 01/24/2008 4:36:59 PM

    We owe all of our financial woes on Ronald Reagan and reaganomics and the trickle down theory. All of the banking safeguards installed after the great depression were rolled back by Reagan and his cronies. Protections such as not allowing big banks to expand beyond state borders in order to prevent the problems we now have of having all our eggs in one basket , this has allowed the growth of mega banks which are now in trouble and will take out huge portions of our economy as they fail. Protections such as caps on interest rates that banks are able to charge which used to be capped at 12%, but now are capped at 30% or more, this encourages lendin speculation with the promise of huge returns, but in reality create much more risk to the system. Protections such as not allowing banks to dabble in risky ventures such as investing in the stock market or allowing them to sell stocks and bonds. Reagan's deregulation of the banking industry has brought us to the brink of the next great depression and we are teetering over the edge.
    The only thing Reagonomics and his tax cutting hacks have accomplished has been the concentration of wealth ito the hands of the modern day robber barron's and not since the great depression has the concentration of wealth been so lopsided.
    According to Ronald Reagan prosperity will trickle down from the rich to the poor under reaganomics, but the truth is the rich cannot devise enough ways to spend they're ill gotten gain and the trickle has stopped.
    Ronald Reagan and his desciples have accomplished one thing only and that is the greatest transfer of wealth in history from the poor and middle-class to the rich. Ronald Reagan the great orator will go down in history as the architect of the second great depression and the world will finally realize that the tax cutting montra of the right wing has brought us the greatest banking collapse in history.

  • Posted By: whiteyward @ 01/24/2008 4:34:39 PM

    Well I'm a 60 yr old and could not find work last year, so whats in it for me? Since I did not pay any tax and the rebate will leave me out what should I do now? Buy a pistol?

  • Posted By: RTGO @ 01/24/2008 11:35:21 AM

    If they are really serious about a tax rebate, how about forgoing the check and just reduce the federal withholding by 3%. And make it permanent. This will help the middle class, the people who are the real economic engine of America, to achieve the American dream far better than some measly check.

  • Posted By: Holly Garfield @ 01/24/2008 7:27:19 AM

    This past weekend has shown that the decoupling theory may be valid to some extent, but does not yet stretch to cover the current US downturn. Hong Kong has dropped at about 3 times the Dow rate. This tells me the chance of a recession is zero. If the US falls into a recession the emerging markets will then have a major meltdown, and take the rest of the global economy with it. Ben Bernake had been behind the curve. A 1/2 point rate cut before Christmas would have had an effect multiplied by the season's sales. He is now making up time with a bigger rate cut. The good news is that he is a quick learner.

    We can take advantage of the 6 month lag before rate cuts take effect. There are now 3 FOMC meetings in the next 3 months, including next week. That gives the Fed time to adjust for any overshoot. An overshoot on rates now can bring confidence to the market and yet can be compensated by lower cuts on March and April.

    The US can also help confidence by re-regulating the finance industry. The problem occurred when investors and analysts couldn't see the risky investments made by the bank management. Increasing transparency so that investors buying the bank stocks can see the subprime exposure will keep that exposure in line. This will also lower the number of subprime mortgages made, because the lenders won't be able to sell them as freely.

    And a note to the previous poster, we do have a vote of confidence in the Constiution, it's held at the start of November, every year. If we start hodling votes more often then not enogh of the general public would go to the polls, and a few people with a beef could vote out an official they don't like simply by showing up. Check the turnout for a school budget vote if you don't believe me.

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