The U.S. Economy Faces the Guillotine

Daniel Gross should be ashamed. There is no recession. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth int he Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is defined as C + I + G + (X-M) with C meaning consumption, I meaning Investment, G meaning government spending, X meaning exports and M meaning imports. The second quarter of 2007 showed a positive growth in the GDP of 3.8 %. The third quarter showed a positive growth of 4.9 %. The 4th quarter results for 2007 will not be released until January 30th. If it shows negative growth in the GDP (and it won't), and the first quarter of 2008 shows negative growth in the GDP, then will will know we are in a recession the end of July at the very earliest.

The left-wing media can't use the Iraq war anymore, because it's going better than they had hoped, so now they're going with a ficitional recession.

THERE IS NO RECESSION! This is so unbelievable. The democrats along with the media are beating the recession drum so loud and long and so frequently that people are actually starting to believe it. For the record, a recession is defined as 6 consecutive months with a negative growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP). How many have we had as of January 27th 2008? None - Nada - Not one - Zip - Zilch - Zero!! But the Democrats need the economy to be bad so they will have a juicy campaign issue. Unfortuately the media helping them out and Americans are buying it. Sad!!

I said all of this and more ten years ago. No one listened. Obviously, my fellow Americans were too busy waving flags and riding what they thought was the gravy train. It is time to hold our leadership accountable and demand the long-term action plan and not an excuse for the direction this country is going. That includes all the pillars in current government, and future administration hopefuls. So far, the proposals they provide for an economic fix border line on the absurd and are nothing short of an obscene juggling act garnished with interest rate cuts that install a false sense of optimism. Then, just when the circus couldn???t get anymore thrilling, they provide a cash hand out to pacify the public and a majority of it will ironically go directly from the IRS to the various financial institutions to which most Americans owe personal debt. Wow, what next...

america has had leaders that were on the take to special interest groups so long we are lucky we really arent with out food,fuel,and about everything else,the oil crunch started in the 70,s what did our leaders do ,nothing what are they doing today,nothing,but look guys bigger trucks an subs,with higher fuel.in forty years we wont have the oil to run them or the tractors to run the farms,then no food,no jobs,money isnt worth the paper its printed on,then what.no matter who you plan on voting for try to get them to answer why we havent done nothing,or what do they plan on doing.maybe bush is in iraq to give us a few more years of oil.we the people better start thinking or our grandkids will live a very bad life.

Here's a good question (that the media won't have an answer for). Why is the U.S. media so short on "facts" when it comes to understanding and/or explaining the global economy? Answer: They don' t care about the facts they just want to sell newspapers, etc. The media reminds me of that commercial about the caveman that pushes everyone else out of the way so that he can be the 1st to buy food (which he pays for with his teeth). When he finally sits down to eat he realizes he's sold all of his teeth. In a nutshell if the media keeps engaging in fact-less speculation then they won't have any advertisers to support their business objectives.

Calls to buy American are ridiculous! I'll buy the best made product at the best price...which cuts out many American products from cars to shoes.

Ron Paul is echoing these problems every time he speaks. We need to learn to stop spending and to start saving. Maybe we all should start to give this guy some support because he speaks reality unlike alot of BS that the others speak.

I am not an expert on economics, however I have been seeing a problem snowballing for years.We have become accustomed to being a nation of credit.We readily crank up the printing presses to put more money into circulation; banks have become big business(new,elaborate ones on every main street corner;too big of a gap between the pay scales on the social ladder;money readily available without much scrutiny; too large of a gap in what lenders are borrowing versus loaning money for; we will see a similar event in the auto industry as the mortgage industry; we are living beyond our means and are we happier???

If we go back to buying American we can buoy ourselves up and let the others figure it out for themselves.

If we go back to buying American we can buoy ourselves up and let the others figure it out for themselves.

Remember, remembe,r the fith of november.
the gunpowder treason and plot!
I see no reason why the fith of November, should ever be forgot
THERE IS SOME THING VERY WRONG WITH THIS COUNTRY!
IT'S NOT OURS ANYMORE? A DICKTATOR RUNS THE SHOW, AND HE CANNOT BE REMOVED-WHY YOU ASK?? WOULD YOU WANT CHENEY RUNNING THE SHOW? AS LIKE HIS FATHER COULD NOT BE SHOT, OR FIRED! AS DAN QUAIL IS NOT COMPENTENT TO RUN A HOT DOG STAND, NOR IS CHENEY! TO BAD THE CLIMBING POWERS TO BE, ARE WHERE OUR COMPANIES WE MADE RICH, LEFT TO, WHEN THEY TOOK "WE THE PEOPLE" TO THE CRAPPER AND FLUSHED! ANY BETS, BUSH WILL NEVER PAY FOR HIS PROFITERING FROM ENRON, WORLDCOM! AS KEN LEIGH HAS YET TO SEE A COURT ROOM, AND THE TREASONIOUS TRADRES WHO OUTED A CIA UNDERCOVER OPERATIVE, STILL LIVE! SAD!
FROM A VETERAN

Media and NBC have been hoping the downfall of the US for decades. Please move to Europe and get it over with.(and take alec baldwin)

Media elites have been hoping for a US downfall for decades. This is old hat.

All the more reason to stop breeding....especially since all we seem to do is give our kids EVERYTHING.

In anticipation of the new economic order, I have been stocking up on goats. Although some have rotted and some have run away, I believe I am sufficiently capitalized now.

If anyone with some extra cantaloupes would like to trade, please let me know.

I live in Canada and here there doesn???t seem to be a great sense of urgency regarding a severe economic downturn. Canadians may well be wrong, and we could be in for a surprise, but so much of the recession seems to be uniquely American. In Canada's case the economy is still fairly robust; housing prices continue to rise, we don???t have sub-prime mortgages so unless employment numbers drop significantly we are unlikely to see significant home foreclosures and bankruptcies. Most importantly, by not being drawn into a costly and pointless invasion and subsequent occupation, Canada has managed to reduce its debt during a time of economic strength thus providing the strongest antidote to a recession; consumer confidence.
I imagine many other countries have a similar, somewhat optimistic outlook on the future which could present a unique situation where the US must weather a protracted recession virtually alone. While there is no question that global economies are linked and when one is affected we are all affected, I think the severity of effect will be the current administrations lasting legacy.
The real question is whether the US can do something to change the way it has recently spent money and collected taxes. The US is very quick to whip out its credit card to pay for things it can???t afford, but when they need to be taxed to pay their bills everyone acts as though it???s someone else???s problem. This may have worked in the past, but with decades of military occupation costs looming and a large chunk of the population either about to lose their homes or be helped in a costly bailout, I can???t see how the US will avoid a costly, protracted and most likely lonely recession.

These same emerging markets continue to climb in population while the supply of global grain and other food supplies continue to dwindle. The economic prowess of China and India will be short lived if production comes to a halt due to mass starvation and civil disorder in the form of riots. The rise in the price of commodities will easily bring the chaos factor in a whole new light. It is a historical fact that nations lacking the basics to survive will tend to put their focus more on military intervention to gain what they lack regardless of the consequences. It is a dangerous climate we find ourselves in, this is however only the beginning.

Very good article on the situation. Decoupling may be real, but today the emerging markets are still at the mercy of the US economy, at least with the current level of spending changes. We are still the center of the global finance industry, and that is the weak spot. Hong Kong still echoes Wall St. and Hang Seng changes are roughly 3 times Dow industrial changes. Decoupling is still not enough to buffer the US damage of a recession. It also means that a US recession may cause a global deeper recession. This is the key difference with the past. Now a slowdown in the US can create a global cycle that can feed on itself. The good news is that the US problems seem to stay within the finance/housing industries for now, and sovereign wealth funds have the means, and the interest, to support the US where internal controls may fail. Inflation is under 2.5% for now and unemployment is staying low and flat. As long as US consumers can pay their bills (except for those who are overextended at the start) and US business can keep their bond payments up then we will be able to muddle through with what we have until the damage is repaired.

I do find interesting the situation where the heads of many large financial institutions got into trouble by ignoring high school economics, though. Supply/demand principles and business cycle principles were ignored on the way to the subprime problem. Bond insurers dove headlong into consumer bond insurance, with a completely different type of dynamics. Rating agencies based mortgage backed securities ratings on a bubble that had been developing for years. Builders created an oversupply of houses in an overpriced market. Fortunately, most other industries seemed to keep their heads, and that is what is keeping us afloat for now.

Ron Paul for the long haul!

Dr. Paul WILL put thousands of REAL dollars in YOUR pocket. Wanna see how?

Dr. Paul???s 4 point economic stimulus plan even includes legislation and is viewable online. http://RonPaul2008.com