The Oil Paradox

The Bush Depression


In a few weeks we will make a choice that will decide our future.
I follow an economist named Bob Proctor. He has called the top and bottom of every market crash since the 70s correctly.
Also, he perfectly predicted the current real estate market meltdown and the picture he paints about what will happen in the next couple years
is terrifying.He thinks it will be worse then the great depression.
The banks in the U.S. are going under one after the other. Countrywide the largest morgage bank in the world,Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch which are 3 out of the top 5 wall street firms. Also, Fanny and Freddy Mae which hold 50 percent of the home loans in the United States.
The government took them over because they are essentially bankrupt.If they didn't the entire financially system would virtually shut down, the stock market would crash and we would suffer beyond what any of us have seen before.

McCain just like Bush " doesn't understand the economy".
That not just my opinion its his own words. Not only does he not understand how to fix it but he does not understand exactly what is broken.
It is no surprise that he doesn't. The people that make up these securities use complex mathematical models very few people understand.
Bush and McCain both can take the credit for this mess since they helped deregulate the laws that were protecting us.

Bush's economic advisor Phil Graham wrote the deregulation bill that allowed banks to take huge risks with all of our future.
Now, Phil Graham is the head of McCain's economic policy.He is also McCain's choice for the next secretary of the treasury.
No one in this country can afford for that to happen. The last time Bush met with his economic advisors was in March. He either didn't care or didn't realize that anything was wrong. Phil Graham had the guts to say that we are in a mental recession after he helped create the worst economy meltdown in our lifetime.
It will take the best and brightest minds in the world to get us out of this nightmare. As bad as Bush has done, McCain would be
even more destructive because things are in much worse shape. The next president will not inherit a surplus like Bush did but a tanking economy and a 11,600,000,000,000 (trillion) dollars deficit.Bush created a national debt larger then the first 42 presidents combined
If you do what you have always done then you will get what you have always got.
When it comes to policy Bush and McCain are the same 90 percent of the time.
So why isnt obama 25 points ahead

The chairman of McCains campaign recently said that people don't vote on issues they vote on a personality composite. Which means he is trying to sell you personality instead of results.

Let's teach him we are smarter than that .

31 states are voting now, dont wait
Elect Obama Biden 2008





Check out this video of sarah palins interview before you vote



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r36Xc0GG4i

And here is the final part (4):

"Investment banks had been frustrated with the established exchange because they really were never able to get control of it," said Michael Greenberger, a law professor at the University of Maryland and a former staff member at the CFTC.

The most successful of the private platforms was InterContinental Exchange, or ICE, founded by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and a few other big brokerages in 2000. ICE soon opened a trading platform in London, allowing its founders to trade vast quantities of U.S. oil overseas without being subject to regulation.

The exemptions for swap dealers and the development of overseas markets allowed big brokerages to open the door for more hedge funds, pensions and big investors to move into commodities.


In the coming years, commodity investments by funds could grow to $1 trillion, veteran hedge fund manager Michael Masters said in testimony before the Senate earlier this year. In an interview, he said this trend could raise commodity prices for everyone in the coming years and "have catastrophic economic effects on millions of already stressed U.S. consumers."

Meanwhile, commodities have been good business for big Wall Street brokerages. Its commodity trades helped keep Goldman Sachs profitable during the credit crisis, said Richard Bove, a banking analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann.

"Business is lousy right now," Bowie said of Goldman Sachs. "Commodities and currencies are clearly the strongest business they have right now."

In the coming months, swap dealers expect to have yet another venue for oil speculation. The CFTC has stated it would not stand in the way of trading in U.S. oil contracts overseas in Dubai. Goldman Sachs and Vitol are among the major investors in this new exchange.

© 2008 The Washington Post Company

And here is part 2:
CFTC documents show Vitol was one of the most active traders of oil on NYMEX as prices reached record levels. By June 6, for instance, Vitol had acquired a huge holding in oil contracts, betting prices would rise. The contracts were equal to 57.7 million barrels of oil -- about three times the amount the United States consumes daily. That day, the price of oil spiked $11 to settle at $138.54. Oil prices eventually peaked at $147.27 a barrel on July 11 before falling back to settle at $114.98 yesterday.

The documents do not say how much Vitol put down to acquire this position, but under NYMEX rules, the down payment could have been as little as $1 billion, with the company borrowing the rest.

The biggest players on the commodity exchanges often operate as "swap dealers" who primarily invest on behalf of hedge funds, wealthy individuals and pension funds, allowing these investors to enjoy returns without having to buy an actual contract for oil or other goods. Some dealers also manage commodity trading for commercial firms.

To build up the vast holdings this practice entails, some swap dealers have maneuvered behind the scenes, exploiting their political influence and gaps in oversight to gain exemptions from regulatory limits and permission to set up new, unregulated markets. Many big traders are active not only on NYMEX but also on private and overseas markets beyond the CFTC's purview. These openings have given the firms nearly unfettered access to the trading of vital goods, including oil, cotton and corn.


Using swap dealers as middlemen, investment funds have poured into the commodity markets, raising their holdings to $260 billion this year from $13 billion in 2003. During that same period, the price of crude oil rose unabated every year.

CFTC data show that at the end of July, just four swap dealers held one-third of all NYMEX oil contracts that bet prices would increase. Dealers make trades that forecast prices will either rise or fall. Energy analysts say these data are evidence of the concentration of power in the markets.

CFTC leaders have argued that speculators are not influencing commodities' prices. If any new information arises during the agency's examination of swap dealer activity, officials said they would report it to Congress.


"To date, the CFTC has found that supply and demand fundamentals offer the best explanation for the systematic rise in oil prices," CFTC spokesman R. David Gary said, reading a statement that had been crafted by agency officials. "Regardless of their classification . . . the CFTC's market surveillance group scrutinizes daily the positions of all large traders, both commercial and non-commercial, to guard against market manipulation."

© 2008 The Washington Post Company

PART 2:

CFTC documents show Vitol was one of the most active traders of oil on NYMEX as prices reached record levels. By June 6, for instance, Vitol had acquired a huge holding in oil contracts, betting prices would rise. The contracts were equal to 57.7 million barrels of oil -- about three times the amount the United States consumes daily. That day, the price of oil spiked $11 to settle at $138.54. Oil prices eventually peaked at $147.27 a barrel on July 11 before falling back to settle at $114.98 yesterday.

The documents do not say how much Vitol put down to acquire this position, but under NYMEX rules, the down payment could have been as little as $1 billion, with the company borrowing the rest.

The biggest players on the commodity exchanges often operate as "swap dealers" who primarily invest on behalf of hedge funds, wealthy individuals and pension funds, allowing these investors to enjoy returns without having to buy an actual contract for oil or other goods. Some dealers also manage commodity trading for commercial firms.

To build up the vast holdings this practice entails, some swap dealers have maneuvered behind the scenes, exploiting their political influence and gaps in oversight to gain exemptions from regulatory limits and permission to set up new, unregulated markets. Many big traders are active not only on NYMEX but also on private and overseas markets beyond the CFTC's purview. These openings have given the firms nearly unfettered access to the trading of vital goods, including oil, cotton and corn.


Using swap dealers as middlemen, investment funds have poured into the commodity markets, raising their holdings to $260 billion this year from $13 billion in 2003. During that same period, the price of crude oil rose unabated every year.

CFTC data show that at the end of July, just four swap dealers held one-third of all NYMEX oil contracts that bet prices would increase. Dealers make trades that forecast prices will either rise or fall. Energy analysts say these data are evidence of the concentration of power in the markets.

CFTC leaders have argued that speculators are not influencing commodities' prices. If any new information arises during the agency's examination of swap dealer activity, officials said they would report it to Congress.


"To date, the CFTC has found that supply and demand fundamentals offer the best explanation for the systematic rise in oil prices," CFTC spokesman R. David Gary said, reading a statement that had been crafted by agency officials. "Regardless of their classification . . . the CFTC's market surveillance group scrutinizes daily the positions of all large traders, both commercial and non-commercial, to guard against market manipulation."

© 2008 The Washington Post Company

An excellent Washington Post article on the who and how of oil manipulation. I will post in four parts because of length:

A few speculators dominate oil market

Regulators: Swiss energy firm holds 11 percent of contracts on NYMEX
By David Cho
The Washington Post
updated 8:47 p.m. PT, Wed., Aug. 20, 2008

Regulators had long classified a private Swiss energy conglomerate called Vitol as a trader that primarily helped industrial firms that needed oil to run their businesses.

But when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission examined Vitol's books last month, it found that the firm was in fact more of a speculator, holding oil contracts as a profit-making investment rather than a means of lining up the actual delivery of fuel. Even more surprising to the commodities markets was the massive size of Vitol's portfolio -- at one point in July, the firm held 11 percent of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange.

The discovery revealed how an individual financial player had gained enormous sway over the oil market without the knowledge of regulators. Other CFTC data showed that a significant amount of trading activity was concentrated in the hands of just a few speculators.

The CFTC, which learned about the nature of Vitol's activities only after making an unusual request for data from the firm, now reports that financial firms speculating for their clients or for themselves account for about 81 percent of the oil contracts on NYMEX, a far bigger share than had previously been stated by the agency. That figure may rise in coming weeks as the CFTC checks the status of other big traders.

Some lawmakers have blamed these firms for the volatility of oil prices, including the tremendous run-up that peaked earlier in the summer.

"It is now evident that speculators in the energy futures markets play a much larger role than previously thought, and it is now even harder to accept the agency's laughable assertion that excessive speculation has not contributed to rising energy prices," said Rep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.). He added that it was "difficult to comprehend how the CFTC would allow a trader" to acquire such a large oil inventory "and not scrutinize this position any sooner."

The CFTC, which refrains from naming specific traders in its reports, did not publicly identify Vitol.

The agency's report showed only the size of the holdings of an unnamed trader. Vitol's identity as that trader was confirmed by two industry sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

Copperhead39
Í'm sorry but you don't seem to understand that there is no free market in energy. The government has to step in an subsidize alternatives, because the $2Trillion invested in oil infrastructure will always point us to oil, or oil from coal, or ethanol, rather than logical, efficient alternatives like conservation, geothermal, wind, and solar.

Simply put, if we spent the last 30 years letting the "free market" control our energy destiny, and we found out we were fools. You are simply advocating more of the same. Maybe if you were a Saudi prince, that would be good for you and your famiy. But not for anybody else.

maybe if the money made in taxes were used for the purpose of the tax then they wouldn't have to keep raising taxes, or prices, the end to the us will be it's greed, and thats pretty simple.

Decent read although I am not sure we are in a position to accuse other nations of having a reckless foreign policy.

We will have alternative sources of energy when the oil companies own the means of production. Meanwhile, the high oil price can be maintained and make it worthwhile to get the next hundred's years worth out of the tar sands in Alberta. The superport in Northern British Columbia allows its profitable export to emerging economies if we in America don't like the price.

I don't know what the fuss is. It's not just the foreign countries. We have 100's of years worth of oil and resources not just in the gulf as this article says,... but also under the Rocky Mtns and in Alaska. I can understand why ecologists don't want to disturb some of these places, but I think now we have the technology so that exploiting this areas won't disturb the local ecologies as it would have in the past. But when we have a government who is in bed with companies like Haliburton, it will be a long time, and probably too late, before we revert to a bit of isolationism and start rebuilding our country.

AS LONG AS WHERE THERE ARE REFINERIES LIKE IN NM, THE COUNTY IT IS IN PAYS MORE THAN THE WHOLE COUNTRY ON AVG, AND AS LONG AS THERE ARE MORONS WHO WILL PAY! THERE WILL BE COMPANIES WHO WILL TAKE OUR MONEY! AT A WOOPING 3.10 PER GALLON FOR THE PAST 5 YEARS WITH A REFINERY WITHIN 3 MILES OF ME 2 OF THE TOP TEN WORST POLLUTING POWER PLANTS [COAL] AND LOW AND BEHOLD NOT A TRAIN IN SIGHT ALL SUPPLIED AND DELIVERED BY TRUCK AT 3.50 PER GALLON SMART HU-NOT!!! THANKS RICHARDSON AND HIS GREEN THUMB, BUT ONLY IF YOU COUNT!! WE IN SAN JUAN COUNTY DO NOT COUNT WE ARE THE GAS CAPITAL IN THE USA AND PROBLEMS GALLOR WITH NO END IN SIGHT CAUSE WE ARE JUST A GAS FIELD THE 90,000 PEOPLE DO NOT COUNT OUR TAXES PAID FOR A TRAIN!!! FROM ALBQ TO SANTA FE FOR COMMUTERS NOT OIL OR GAS OR COAL BUT PEOPLE THA REST IS DONE BY DIESEL ALL 225 TRUCKS A WEEK AND SOON TO BE 385 TRUCKS PER WEEK WHEN OUR THIRD COAL POWER PLANT FIRES UP TO POLLUTE THIS AREA EVEN MORE!!! GO MOBIL EXXON?? GET YOUR STOCKHOLDERS THERE PIECE OF THE PIE, AND SEND THE REST TO DUBUI INDIA!!! AMERICA PROFITS NOTHING! WHAT ELSE IS NEW! THE LESS YOU DRIVE, OR BUY!! THE HIGHER THE PRICE WILL GO!! IT IS THE AMERICAN WAY, TO PROFIT DUBUI WHERE ALL THE COMPANIES WE MADE MILLIONS WENT, TO TO HIRE THERE, NOT HERE! ITS THE RIGHT THING TO DO RIGHT? ?