The Oil Paradox

 

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Seeing this, you might think that countries in the West might make up the difference by allowing their own resources to be tapped more heavily. But this hasn't happened. In some cases, environmental rules and other restrictions stand in the way. The United States, for example, has put nearly all of its oil- and gas-rich coastline off limits for drilling despite huge advances in environmentally safe drilling practices. And in the Gulf of Mexico, the only place where new U.S. offshore drilling is taking place, the government is raising its take because it wants more of the oil wealth for itself. Governments worldwide have done the same—from Russia to Venezuela to the North Sea and Alberta—by raising the tax rate on oil production, which makes drillers think twice about investing handsomely in new supply projects. They know that when profits are too high, governments will find ways to strip away the excess.

The rising spiral in oil prices will eventually abate. Some of the relief will eventually come from new supplies, but the big surprise may be in demand. When prices stay high, consumers eventually start investing in more efficient oil systems. And entrepreneurs also look for substitutes such as advanced biofuels that are just being tested on a commercial scale this year. If America's economic troubles spread gloom across the globe, then demand will dampen further. And the trip down from today's dizzying oil prices could be faster than most people think. Once investors in oil commodities are no longer confident that oil will always be more valuable tomorrow than it is today, they will switch their money to some other investment.

Victor is a law professor and director at Stanford’s Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, as well as an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

© 2008

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  • Posted By: cani77 @ 10/03/2008 10:11:53 PM

    The Bush Depression


    In a few weeks we will make a choice that will decide our future.
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    Also, he perfectly predicted the current real estate market meltdown and the picture he paints about what will happen in the next couple years
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    Bush and McCain both can take the credit for this mess since they helped deregulate the laws that were protecting us.

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    Now, Phil Graham is the head of McCain's economic policy.He is also McCain's choice for the next secretary of the treasury.
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    The chairman of McCains campaign recently said that people don't vote on issues they vote on a personality composite. Which means he is trying to sell you personality instead of results.

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    31 states are voting now, dont wait
    Elect Obama Biden 2008





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  • Posted By: pezled @ 09/30/2008 7:39:46 AM

    What planet are you living on? There are 3 HUGE natural gas reserves just recently discovered in the Texas (Barnett Shale), Louisiana (Haynesville Shale) and Oklahoma area. Business is booming in those areas for companies connected to Natural gas. We have plenty of Natural gas to go around - no need to import. If you're going to post, at least know what you are talking about........

  • Posted By: wnnr2 @ 08/27/2008 1:08:56 PM

    And here is the final part (4):

    "Investment banks had been frustrated with the established exchange because they really were never able to get control of it," said Michael Greenberger, a law professor at the University of Maryland and a former staff member at the CFTC.

    The most successful of the private platforms was InterContinental Exchange, or ICE, founded by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and a few other big brokerages in 2000. ICE soon opened a trading platform in London, allowing its founders to trade vast quantities of U.S. oil overseas without being subject to regulation.

    The exemptions for swap dealers and the development of overseas markets allowed big brokerages to open the door for more hedge funds, pensions and big investors to move into commodities.


    In the coming years, commodity investments by funds could grow to $1 trillion, veteran hedge fund manager Michael Masters said in testimony before the Senate earlier this year. In an interview, he said this trend could raise commodity prices for everyone in the coming years and "have catastrophic economic effects on millions of already stressed U.S. consumers."

    Meanwhile, commodities have been good business for big Wall Street brokerages. Its commodity trades helped keep Goldman Sachs profitable during the credit crisis, said Richard Bove, a banking analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann.

    "Business is lousy right now," Bowie said of Goldman Sachs. "Commodities and currencies are clearly the strongest business they have right now."

    In the coming months, swap dealers expect to have yet another venue for oil speculation. The CFTC has stated it would not stand in the way of trading in U.S. oil contracts overseas in Dubai. Goldman Sachs and Vitol are among the major investors in this new exchange.

    © 2008 The Washington Post Company

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