It may be that some circles in Turkey want to join the European Union, but a much more likely cause for Erdogan's course is that it will permit him to lodge the military from power and instill a permanent Islamist-friendly rule in Turkey, never to be reversed. Getting Gül as president was a masterly move in that direction, as is lifting the ban on the Islamic religious uniform, also known as the headscarf.
Most likely, Erdogan doesn't care much about EU membership. He knows that we Europeans have no desire to let Turkey join, with opinion polls showing up to 70-80 % of the European citizens simply refusing the idea. The intransigence against non-Muslim minorities, the recurrent censorship of YouTube and WordPress, and now the invasion into Iraq all show that Turkey in practical life cares little about fulfilling even fundamental conditions for EU candidacy.
But how come EU hasn't simply suspended the negotiations long ago, as the Union stated it would if the reforms were put on a back burner? This is a mystery wrapped in a riddle disguised as an enigma. The Eurocrats have invested much prestige in the project and hate to see it fail, regardless of supposedly 'strict' conditions or public opinion.
US interference, one of the most dreaded events that can happen in European politics, have saved the day for the Turks every time the Europeans were about to tell the Turks that the project was hopeless.
Finally, and probably most important, the European Union is full of well-paid specialists able to field nimble excuses and false hopes for just about every reform flaw, human rights breach or Copenhagen Criteria violation in Turkey. This well-paid army of lawyers, diplomats and rapporteurs is effectively shielding the EU Commission from public opinion on the matter, and further buys them excuses for inaction even on obvious issues such as the continuing occupation of Cyprus, the censorship events and now the invasion into Kurdistan.
This, along with the adoption of the publicly rejected Constitution Treaty, seriously erodes public confidence in the entire EU project. But who actually cares? The Eurocrats have their pensions secured, the politicians get to drive limousines and participate in fancy dinners.
Some day, however, all the fine people may wake up and find that the democratic legitimacy for the European Union has evaporated, along with public confidence and interest. Unless the politicians show more respect for public opinion and defense of fundamental European values - such as the Rule of law - they'd better brace for impact. It's gonna hurt.
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