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Running Dry

Climate research says Lake Mead, in the Southwest, could be gone by 2021. How millions in southern California and neighboring states would be affected.

 
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Climate change, increased demand, pollution and other hazards are threatening bodies of water around the globe. A look at lakes that are most at risk.

 
 

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You need not go to the Middle East, North Africa or Southeast Asia, where there are already reported water shortages, to understand the value and scarcity of the life-giving liquid. Just look in America's own back yard. The American Southwest has been in a protracted drought for nearly a decade, with sinking water levels in lakes and rivers and decreasing snowpack in the mountains. And now a prominent scientist from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, says that Lake Mead, which supplies water to 22 million people throughout the region, could be bone dry in just 13 years.

It may sound like the plot of an apocalyptic sci-fi flick, but Tim Barnett, a research marine geophysicist and climate expert at Scripps, says there's a 50 percent chance that the manmade lake, a reservoir created by Hoover Dam located on the Colorado River 30 miles southeast of Las Vegas, will be dry by 2021, or even sooner if climate changes continue as expected and water use is not curtailed.

Barnett, lead author of a paper titled "When Will Lake Mead Go Dry"which will appear in the peer-reviewed journal Water Resources Research, published by the American Geophysical Union, says human demand and human-induced climate change are creating a net deficit of nearly 1 million acre-feet of water per year from the Colorado River system, which includes Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Barnett talked to NEWSWEEK's Jamie Reno about the Lake Mead study, what it means for the Southwest, and what—if anything—can be done to save the lake. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: When and why did you begin the Lake Mead study?
Tim Barnett: We started in earnest at the beginning of last summer. It was a curiosity-driven project. I just wanted to find out if things were this bad, and we quickly concluded that they are … We were stunned at the magnitude of the problem and how fast it was moving. It's not a scientific abstraction. This will impact every person living in the Southwest.

How were you actually able to determine that the lake could run dry by 2021?
Our analysis of Federal Bureau of Reclamation records of past water demand and calculations of scheduled water allocations and climate conditions indicate that the system could run dry, even if mitigation measures are implemented. We started from the level it is today. We know how much water is coming in and how much will go out, to the farmers, to the cities, etc. We also know the rate of transfer to Mexico: 1.5 million acre-feet per year. The final thing we added, which the Bureau of Reclamation does not add in, were evaporation and infiltration into the soil, which is 1.7 million acre-feet per year. We added up all these numbers and put in the prorated amount from climate change, and found we had a negative number. We were stunned.

The Lake Mead/Lake Powell system is a source of water for millions of people throughout the Southwest. How many people would be directly affected if Lake Mead ran dry?
Thirty million people, or more. Everyone in Southern California, everyone in the entire region would be affected.

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  • Posted By: Nins @ 07/10/2008 7:30:53 PM

    Know why McCain wants to distance himself from former Senator Phil Gramm? It is not just because of Gramm's recent obnoxious remarks calling Americans "a nation of whiners" and that unemployed Americans are in "a mental recession." In fact, those remarks were so obnoxious that I wonder if they were engineered just to provide McCain an excuse for publicly distancing himself from Gramm. This issue is a lot deeper than it looks on the surface.

    When Gramm was a Senator he was chair of the Committee on Banking, and in that capacity he was able to push through the legislation now known as the "Enron Loophole." This loophole allowed US investment banks to bypass the Federal regulations governing futures trading, and is the reason why the investment banks were able to falsely inflate the prices of oil, wheat, corn and other commodities through massive futures trading, causing your costs of gas, heating oil and food to go through the roof.

    Gramm was a member of McCain's campaign team, but now Gramms' name is turning to mud. In addition to the Enron loophole, Gramm pushed through the Gramm-Leach-Biley Act in 1999, which got rid of the laws that seperate banking, insurance and brokerage activities in America. Essentially, this Act did away with all of the good laws written after the Great Depression to protect us from another Wall Street/Banking Industry collapse. That's right, Gramm stripped the system of it's safe guards nine years ago, and guess what? The value of the dollar has nose-dived, Wall Street is highly unstable, and we are in the midst of a recession.

    Now you could say that this is not Gramm's fault, that he didn't know what the outcome of his actions would be. However, it turns out that the same investment banks that benefited from the Enron loophole and from the Gramm Act gave more than a million dollars to Gramm's campaign. Uh oh. A Congressional hearing is going to be convened to investigate this. And McCain wants to have noting to do with Gramm, wants us to forget that Gramm has been a key player on McCain's campaign team. Gramm was McCain's campaign CO-CHAIR and LEADING ECONOMIC ADVISER.

    With Gramm in the driver's seat as his leading economic adviser, now you know why economists and analysts are saying that McCain's economic policy plans are untenable.

  • Posted By: BumbershootBaby @ 07/09/2008 4:29:59 PM

    This is erroneous! There is one reason and one reason only that Lake Mead is running dry and scientists (so called) need to stop blaming agriculture. Las Vegas is the closest major city to Lake Mead (unless you count Laughlin and I don't). Las Vegas in the past twenty years has experienced an apocalyptic population explosion. They've also changed their skyline at least six times since I lived there. And where do you think all the water for the manmade lakes (think The Lakes suburb and Summerlin and Sun City) for the fake volcanoes, for the fake moats, for the fake harbors, for the dancing fountains, not to mention the huge golf courses comes from?

    I'm not even talking about the hotel pools and tons of laundry done each day there. THIS is the drain on Lake Mead and the Colorado river. Stop blaming global warming, climate change, emission or whatever and dry up Bellagio's dancing fountains, the pools, the huge golf courses and the idiocy "curb appeal" utilized in the form of Treasure Island's moat or The Mirage's volcano (all Wynn Properties I might add sucking up the most water).
    Get real people. This is not a new problem. The Valley Water district will go out and fine people for watering their postage stamp sized lawns but will not say boo to the worst water wasters: the hotels and golf courses.

  • Posted By: BumbershootBaby @ 07/09/2008 4:28:21 PM

    This is erroneous! There is one reason and one reason only that Lake Mead is running dry and scientists (so called) need to stop blaming agriculture. Las Vegas is the closest major city to Lake Mead (unless you count Laughlin and I don't). Las Vegas in the past twenty years has experienced an apocalyptic population explosion. They've also changed their skyline at least six times since I lived there. And where do you think all the water for the manmade lakes (think The Lakes suburb and Summerlin and Sun City) for the fake volcanoes, for the fake moats, for the fake harbors, for the dancing fountains, not to mention the huge golf courses comes from?

    I'm not even talking about the hotel pools and tons of laundry done each day there. THIS is the drain on Lake Mead and the Colorado river. Stop blaming global warming, climate change, emission or whatever and dry up Bellagio's dancing fountains, the pools, the huge golf courses and the idiocy "curb appeal" utilized in the form of Treasure Island's moat or The Mirage's volcano (all Wynn Properties I might add sucking up the most water).
    Get real people. This is not a new problem. The Valley Water district will go out and fine people for watering their postage stamp sized lawns but will not say boo to the worst water wasters: the hotels and golf courses.

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