The Islamist Tide In Pakistan Is Turning, And None Too Soon

The Islamist politicians who have done so much to make Pakistan the world's most dangerous nation appear headed for defeat. In 2002, riding anti-American anger after the invasion of neighboring Afghanistan, the MMA candidates won an unprecedented 56 seats in the 342-member national assembly, and a power broker role they used in conniving ways to help keep President Pervez Musharraf in power. They also formed a government in the North-West Frontier province, turning it into a haven for Al Qaeda and other groups who have used the region to launch domestic and international attacks. Now, in a vote this Monday, the MMA may win no more than 10 seats, a development that could undermine both Musharraf and, ironically, the terrorists he's been fighting.

The Islamists have played a double game. Even as they railed against Musharraf's security alliance with the United States, and his sporadic drives against extremists, they quietly worked with the increasingly unpopular general. The military-mullah alliance goes back to the 1980s, when the military funded Islamist guerrillas fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and survives today. In 2003, MMA votes allowed Musharraf to pass a constitutional amendment to retain simultaneously the posts of president and army chief of staff. But when Musharraf reneged on his side of the deal—that he would later resign his military post—party supporters began defecting in disgust.

Meanwhile, in the tribal areas, radicals began violently enforcing rigid Islamic rule, bombing music stores, closing girls' schools. Insurgent attacks multiplied and many Pakistanis blame the mullahs for the chaos. In NWFP, locals further resent them for failing to improve social services. In the provincial legislature, the MMA won 72 of 120 seats in 2002, but may only win 20 this time. "They will get trounced," predicts Afrasiab Khattak, NWFP provincial president of the moderate Awami National Party.

The big winners will likely be secular anti-Musharraf parties, including those of the recently assassinated icon Benazir Bhutto and of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. An MMA defeat would also undercut Musharraf's two-faced claim to the West that he must remain in power, over growing popular opposition, as a bulwark against the MMA and the possibility that the mullahs might gain control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. "He will no longer be able to play the mullah card," says Mohammad Farooq Khan, a prominent NWFP political analyst. And the West may finally get a leader with whom it can work.
—Sami Yousafzai, Ron Moreau and Zahid Hussain

Conspiracy Theory: Ch á vez ' s Shaky Grip
Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is getting more erratic, even paranoid. With his approval rating plummeting recently to 36 percent, the strain is showing. In December, he used the S word four times on television to describe his defeat in a constitutional referendum that would have extended his power indefinitely. In response to food shortages—the result of Chávez's price controls—he accused companies of withholding goods as part of a conspiracy to undermine him. "Just give me the excuse I'm looking for to expropriate you," he snarled. He repeatedly leveled the charge that the Bush administration is plotting to kill him, most recently in January. Last week, amid a dispute with ExxonMobil, he threatened to cut off oil sales to the United States—an economic suicide threat, given that the U.S. is his biggest oil customer. The price of oil barely moved—a sign the world is ignoring his mood swings.
—Phil Gunson

Sarko L ' americain: Tempest Brewing
French President Nicolas Sarkozy's habit of following grand sales pitches with weak follow-through is undermining him ahead of elections in March, widely seen as a personal test. He promised to be a "purchasing-power president," only to see the price of baguettes soar. Unable to deliver, he had to concede in January that state coffers were empty. He campaigned to help France's riot-prone suburbs with a "Marshall Plan," evoking the $12 billion postwar U.S. bailout for Europe. So, when he unveiled the proposal on Feb. 8, he disappointed by denouncing "handouts" and giving few budget details.

To make matters worse, Sarkozy's personal intrigues keep coming: last week his 21-year-old son helped orchestrate a putsch of his father's handpicked—but struggling—mayoral candidate in Neuilly, Sarko's symbolic "fiefdom." When the president commandeered television time the same night to sell his role in the Lisbon Treaty, the appearance was derided as mere diversion from the "soap opera."