The End of Musharraf?

The new parliamentary body therefore is expected to take direct aim at his legal authority. The first target may be the constitutional amendment that gives the president the power to dismiss the prime minister, the elected government, and to dissolve the assembly. That law can be overturned by a two-thirds national assembly vote. The national assembly can also strike a crippling blow against Musharraf by not validating the state of emergency order he issued as army chief last November. That draconian act removed the most independent judges from the Supreme Court, including Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, knocking out constitutional challenges to Musharraf's re-election as president for a new five-year term. If the assembly votes against "indemnifying" Musharraf for the imposition of the emergency, which he has admitted was an illegal act (he got away with it because he was head of the army), the cashiered judges could be restored quickly to their former positions. Most Pakistanis favor the restoration of the judges—which was Sharif's and his party's sole political platform. And a restored judiciary headed by Chaudhry would most likely revisit the constitutionality of Musharraf's disputed presidential victory, thus threatening his presidency. The new assembly will also try to alter the 17th amendment, which gives the army a constitutional role in government as a key player in the National Security Council.

To be sure, Musharraf will fight any attempt to strip him of his powers. An authoritarian figure whom Bush and other world leaders have fawned over, Musharraf won't happily shrink away to become a figurehead president. But if he fights back too roughly, the national assembly has the option to impeach him and remove him from office. Indeed, Musharraf has never seemed more vulnerable. But it would also be a mistake to count him out. If Zardari and Sharif cannot maintain a united front, Musharraf could yet win by his old strategy of divide and rule.

© 2008