No Traction

For weeks, Hillary Clinton's campaign has argued that it would be irresponsible—reckless, even—for Democrats to nominate Barack Obama because he hasn't endured enough scrutiny. So in the days ahead of the Wisconsin vote, the Clinton campaign stepped up its attacks, unleashing several negative TV ads against Obama. Clinton aides also successfully pushed two days of news coverage suggesting that Obama had "plagiarized" a couple of lines from his campaign co-chair, Deval Patrick, the Massachusetts governor.

Nothing stuck. According to exit polls, Obama won big among men and drew almost even among women in Wisconsin. He won among lower-wage earners, who were Clinton's most reliable supporters less than a month ago. And he drew even among high-school graduates, 
while still maintaining his support among higher-earners and those with college degrees. Clinton won among white Democrats, but lost heavily among independents; she won seniors, but lost older, middle-aged voters that have previously swung behind her.

Perhaps most striking was that Obama erased Clinton's two strongest poll advantages over the course of the last year of campaigning. On the issues of electability and the qualifications to be commander in chief, Obama beat Clinton in the exit polls.

Wisconsin was supposed to be the kind of state that was perfect for Clinton: predominantly white, it has plenty of blue-collar workers who should have appreciated her focus on economic issues. Recent polling in the state suggested the state was entirely winnable for Clinton. Coming out of Super Tuesday, Obama's lead was in the low single digits. One recent poll gave Clinton a 6-point lead, while two others gave Obama a double-digit lead.

But the Clinton campaign seemed torn over whether to fight in Wisconsin as a way of halting Obama's Super Tuesday momentum, or simply concede another state—and wait another two weeks until Texas and Ohio. Clinton cut back on her travel to Wisconsin but increased her ad spending there.

She and her aides also moved to attack Obama on an almost daily basis, especially taking aim at Obama's ability to deliver inspiring speeches by questioning his authenticity. Having pushed the "plagiarism" story hard in the closing days of the Wisconsin primary, the Clinton campaign then took the rare step of thanking the media. "Look, it's not us making this charge. It's the media," Hillary Clinton told Honolulu TV on Tuesday. "You know, the media is finally examining my opponent, which I think is important because we're trying to pick a president, someone for the toughest job in the world."

For Obama's aides, the Wisconsin victory was proof that they could sustain and thrive in the face of aggressive campaigning. "I think they rejected the negative attacks," said Obama's senior strategist David Axelrod. "It looks like a fairly significant win in a state where the demographics were actually pretty good for her. We won among late deciders, which tells me the negative campaign didn't work."

For Obama's supporters at a Tuesday night rally in Houston, the Wisconsin victory only added to their enthusiasm. The 20,000-strong crowd in the Toyota Center arena would barely allow Obama to speak when he emerged on stage. "Houston," he said, "I think we have achieved liftoff."

Still, this was no ordinary victory speech. Obama dispensed with his scripted oratory, and the autocue screens, to start with some voter mobilization. Given the intricacies of Texas voting, the Democratic campaigns need to get their supporters to vote in both a primary and a 
caucus on the same day. Obama went one step further by urging his crowd to vote early, and then attend the caucus on March 4.

But most of all, he urged his supporters to be ready for an extended fight—beyond the convention and even the general election. "The change we seek is still months and miles away and we need the good people of Texas to help us get there," he said. "We will need you to 
fight for every delegate it takes to win this nomination. And if we win the nomination, if we are honored and blessed to win the nomination, we are going to need your help to win in November. And if we win that election in November, then we are going to need your help and your time and your energy, your enthusiasm, your mobilization, your organization and your voice to help us change America for the next four years."

With several weeks of campaigning ahead of him—and several victories behind him—Obama shows no sign of relaxing into the frontrunner's position any time soon.

© 2008