After Fidel

Fidel Castro was the world's longest-reigning head of state, outside of monarchs, but has not appeared in public in 19 months due to declining health. After resigning Tuesday, Cuba watchers are looking to the scheduled appointment of Fidel's brother, Raul, as the next president on Feb. 24. NEWSWEEK's Katie Paul talked with veteran Cuba expert Brian Latell, a specialist in Latin American affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who has worked at the CIA and the National Intelligence Council has and taught at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: Were you surprised by Castro's resignation?
Brian Latell: No—didn't surprise me. There were statements twice in December, and he said that he was not going to cling to power. I interpreted those statements to mean precisely what happened, that he was going to step aside. And if it was going to happen, it was going to have to coincide roughly with this Feb. 24 National Assembly business.

What does this say about his health?
I think he's in very, very terrible health, and that's why he's stepping aside. He's gravely handicapped. He hasn't been able to make a public appearance in 18 or 19 months. He hasn't been able to make a speech. He's had a number of opportunities during this period to give speeches at events where he'd have been revered and glorified, and he was unable to. Whether or not he's on death's door, I don't think anyone outside a small circle in Cuba really knows.

How do you think his brother will run Cuba?
Raul is fully in charge now. He is going to be running things in his own way, quite differently from Fidel's style, which is, I think, going to be quite a relief to the Cuban people. He's not going to be giving interminable speeches or prancing on the world stage, grandstanding the way Fidel always did. Raul projects himself as a human, not as some kind of a superhuman, the way Fidel liked to have himself portrayed. And I think the Cuban people are taking relief from that.

Do you think Fidel will keep writing those weekly pieces for the newspaper?
Oh, they're even more than weekly. It's going to be interesting to see what the frequency will be once he doesn't have the office of the presidency. But, yes, I think he'll continue to pontificate.

Do you think this will result in any immediate policy changes in Cuba? In the United States?
I don't see anything significant happening in the bilateral relationship, but I do think Raul is intent on implementing significant reforms in the Cuban economy. He wants to make it more productive, less corrupt, so we're going to be seeing changes there.