After Fidel

Anything specific?
I think we're going to see some market mechanisms introduced in agriculture. I think there may be some small service entities that will be allowed to function on a market basis. These are things that Fidel never would have approved, but I think Raul will.

How far do you think we are from an open U.S.-Cuban relationship?
That's impossible to predict, because it depends on variables in Washington, Miami and Cuba. I don't think we're going to see it in 2008. Beyond that, it's very hard to say.

How is the opposition reacting to the news, both in and outside Cuba?
What I'm sensing here in Miami so far is that people are fairly calm about it. I guess that's true on the island, as well. People realize that it's a very significant change that Fidel is gone, but Raul is going to be pretty similar, at least on the political side. Raul is not going to allow any political opening.

On Tuesday, the State Department called Raul "dictator lite." Is that a fair assessment?
Well, Fidel and Raul are dictators. They've never been subjected to a fair, democratic process.

How might this impact Cuban relations with other countries in Latin America?
I'm not sure there's going to be much change. Cubans are very dependant on the Venezuelans for financial support. But Raul is not interested in grandstanding in foreign policy. He's not going to be going abroad or making a lot of speeches on foreign policy. He's going to be devoting himself to solving problems in Cuba.

So it might change the relationship with Hugo Chávez?
It could. It's going to be tricky for Raul. Chávez is a very temperamental man.

© 2008