Ansen Forecasts the Oscars

Nothing seems certain this year, in real or reel life. The political pollsters, normally so drearily accurate, emerged with egg on their faces after proclaiming a resounding Obama victory in New Hampshire. Why should the Oscars be any different? It feels as if this ceremony--which almost didn't happen thanks to the writers' strike--could produce some significant upsets for a change. The conventional wisdom may not apply to a field filled with more than the usual share of unconventional movies. Mainstream commercial movies are barely a blip on the Academy Awards landscape. Little "Juno" is by far the biggest hit among the five best-picture nominees, and the only one of the five that's considered a major studio movie, Warner Bros.'s "Michael Clayton," actually isn't: it was a pickup, financed by an outside company. The Oscars have become the Independent Spirit Awards on a bigger budget.

Here are my not-so-fearless prognostications for a night that may make all the soothsayers, myself included, look clueless.

Best Picture
All the usual signs point toward a victory for "No Country for Old Men." It won the producers', directors' and writers' guild awards, and that's usually a pretty clear sign. The question is, will the Academy really go for a movie this bleak, with such an un-Hollywood leave-em-dangling ending? "Juno" could be a spoiler, as it's the one feel-good movie in a dark lot, but movies about teens just don't win the big one. For all its critical hosannas, "There Will Be Blood" splits audiences down the middle: it has too many detractors to win. "Atonement" only seems like an Oscar movie: it's lost its momentum. If there's a big upset here, it's going to be "Michael Clayton," a movie that speaks in a language both young and old Hollywood understand, and has a swell kick-ass ending to boot. But I'm having a hard time bucking the Vegas odds here: there's just too much evidence that points to a "No Country" victory.

Best Actor
This is perhaps the safest bet of the night: it would be a shock if Daniel Day-Lewis lost. I'd like George Clooney's chances better for "Clayton" if he hadn't already picked up a trophy for "Syriana" a couple of years back. Much as they'd love to give an Oscar to Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd" was clearly too macabre for this group. Tommy Lee Jones is great in "In the Valley of Elah," but voters prefer more flash. Viggo Mortensen's award was the nomination.

Best Actress
SAG and Golden Globe winner Julie Christie is the front runner, and she's beloved for her golden oldies. But something tells me the voters are going to give it up for Marion Cotillard this year, in spite of the fact they don't often go for foreign-language performances. It's exactly the kind of role the Academy loves: self-destruction in song, with lots of disfiguring makeup. How can they resist? The only other contender is "Juno's" Ellen Page, but history suggests young newcomers do better in the supporting categories. Cate Blanchett (nobody liked "Elizabeth: The Golden Age") and Laura Linney ("The Savages") are very dark horses indeed.

Best Supporting Actor
Hal Holbrook seemed poised for an upset here: he's a well-liked vet in a moving role in "Into the Wild," but can anybody stop the Javier Bardem juggernaut? In a year of great villains, his "No Country" psychopath out-nightmared them all, and you'd be wise to place a conservative bet on him. Philip Seymour Hoffman was the best thing in "Charlie Wilson's War," and he had a remarkable year, but again his having won already for "Capote" lessens his chances for an upset. Abandon all hope Casey Affleck and Tom Wilkinson.

Best Supporting Actress
Your guess is as good as mine. This is the toughest race of the night. I could make a case for four of the five nominees. The one I don't think will win is "Atonement's" gifted young Saoirse Ronan, but I should add that I once said the same about Marcia Gay Hardin in "Pollack," and damned if she didn't win. The early favorite was Cate Blanchett. (Her name, by the way, is pronounced BLANCHIT, not BLANSHETTE, as if it were French. I asked her.). The Academy loves Cate, and they love gender-bending performances. But boy do they not love "I'm Not There." Crafty Harvey Weinstein, hoping to get around that fact, inserted a DVD into Variety that contained only the Blanchett segments of the movie. If she triumphs, she might be the first winner for a movie the voters only watched a sixth of. (Didn't they tell us in high school never to end a sentence with a prepostion?) Ruby Dee has to be considered a strong contender because she won this category at the SAG awards--but maybe voters will consider that enough of a tribute to an admired old-timer. Amy Ryan gives a bravura turn as a badass mom in "Gone Baby Gone," and she's won more critics awards than anyone. She may be the favorite now, but I have a hunch Tilda Swinton's ulcerous corporate toady in "Michael Clayton" is going to pull off a mild upset here. It's a way to honor a movie they like, and an uncompromising actor who's paid her dues in movies both far-out and mainstream.

Best Director
You have to go with the Coen brothers. They've never won, and this is clearly movie to give it to them for. The wild card here (in every sense) is Julian Schnabel, who could pull off a monumental upset--when has a director won for a film that wasn't nominated for best picture? His hope is that a lot of people didn't see "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" until after the nominations were announced. Paul Thomas Anderson ("There Will Be Blood") will have ardent support, but not quite enough of it. Tony Gilroy ("Michael Clayton") and Jason Reitman ("Juno") are delighted to be nominated, but neither is holding his breath.

Best Original Screenplay
While "Ratatouille" and "The Savages" will pick up some votes, this is a two-way race: "Michael Clayton" vs. "Juno." Diablo Cody has gotten more press than any screenwriter in memory (it helps to be a former stripper) and her script is the most obviously "written." Much as the Academy likes "Michael Clayton," obviously written wins.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Could "Atonement," "Away from Her," "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" or "There Will Be Blood" upset "No Country for Old Men"? Not likely. The brothers Coen pick up another naked gold man.