Ansen Forecasts the Oscars

Best Animated Feature
There are only three nominees in this category. "Surf's Up"--no way. "Persepolis" will have some passionate supporters, but "Ratatouille" is too widely beloved to lose.

Best Foreign Film
Upsets abound in this category, because so few people vote here. You have to have seen all five--and some are only screened a few times--to qualify to vote. Austria's "The Counterfeiters" has the edge: movies that deal with the Holocaust rarely lose. "Mongol," about the early years of Genghis Khan (from Kazakhstan) is slick, fun and full of spectacular costumes and landscapes. Hollywood loves foreign films that feel like Hollywood films. Which is probably why the Russian "12" got nominated--it's a remake of "12 Angry Men," but a lot longer. Israel's "Beaufort" is a moody, well-made (and apolitical) war movie that has been warmly received at some screenings. And Andrej Wajda's brooding "Katyn" has historical import going for it: its about the Katyn Forest massacres during World War II, in which thousands of Polish officers were massacred by the Soviets, who then blamed it on the Germans. A close call, but I'm sticking with "The Counterfeiters" (My review appears in the next NEWSWEEK)

Best Documentary
Here again only those who see all five get to vote, and it's a strong field. Three movies that deal with Iraq go head to head: the highly acclaimed "No End in Sight," which documents in incontrovertible detail the disastrous mistakes of the U.S. occupation; "Taxi to the Dark Side," a powerfully disturbing investigation of our deployment of torture in Iraq and Afghanistan, and "Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience" a moving and imaginative re-enactment of the stories written by returning soldiers. Also in the field is Michael Moore's "Sicko," the most commercially successful documentary of the year. But much as the health-care issue resonates, I'm not sure the Academy is ready to give Moore another Oscar just yet. Not to be discounted is "War/Dance," which tells the horrific but uplifting tale of Ugandan refugee children, orphaned by civil war, who compete in a national dance competition. This last one could be a surprise winner, but my hunch is that anger with the Bush administration propels "No End in Sight" to victory.

A few other interesting races to watch:

Best Editing
Roderick Jaynes is listed as the editor of "No Country for Old Men," but no such person exists--it's the pseudonym for Joel and Ethan Coen. If they win this--and the screenplay and directing awards--they're going to need a U-Haul to bring home the loot. But watch out for an upset win here from the supercharged "The Bourne Ultimatum." The cutting was dazzling, and such visible virtuosity gives it an edge. I'm guessing the most edited film gets the most votes.

Best Cinematography
Here again "No Country" may come up short. "Atonement" will get votes, but the battle is between Robert Elswit's superb work on "There Will Be Blood" (the slight favorite) and Janusz Kaminski's distinctive subjective camerawork in "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." My gut says Kaminski wins by a hair.

Original Score
Probably comes down to "Ratatouille" vs. "Atonement," a concerto for typewriter and orchestra. Pick "Atonement."

Makeup
"La Vie en Rose" all the way. There was more makeup in "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"--hell, there was more of everything--but who wants to votes for that? And the Academy will turn up its nose at "Norbit."

Art Direction
It won't be "American Gangster"--too subtle. It won't be "The Golden Compass"--didn't make enough money. It could be "Sweeney Todd," because it creates a whole city of London, but Dante Ferretti has won too many times, and the sets are too blood-drenched. It could be "Atonement," for the Academy loves grand English houses. But here I think (and hope) "There Will Be Blood" wins its second Oscar of the night. Jack Fisk created a whole world from scratch.

Live Action Short
I've seen all five and was underwhelmed by most. A lot of critics are touting the 40-minute Danish "At Night," about terminal cancer patients (who all look like supermodels), but I found it dreary and pat. None of the entries are American: my hunch is "Tangi Argentini," with its clever twist ending, wins. "The Tonto Woman," based on an Elmore Leonard Western story, is also a contender, as is the kinetic Italian entry, "The Substitute."