Fidel’s Children

To some extent, the rise in dissent is the result of Raúl Castro's policies. Soon after he assumed effective power in the summer of 2006, he called on Cubans to denounce corruption and devise innovative cures for the island's many ills. The state-run newspaper Juventud Rebelde (Rebel Youth) took the lead in running investigative stories exposing petty crimes, and then went further by explaining how these crimes were a direct result of "systemic" flaws in the socialist economic model. In allowing such criticism, Raúl seemed to be signaling the time had come for sweeping change. Then nothing happened. Raúl cautiously stayed the course, taking no concrete steps to open the state-dominated economy or encourage greater private initiative and investment. No senior officials were publicly held accountable for incompetence, apart from the country's Transportation minister, and the elder Castro seemed to act as a brake on Raúl's plans to reform the island's economy along Chinese lines. In a high-profile speech last summer, Raúl acknowledged the painfully obvious: salaries were too low, food production and distribution were dysfunctional, and the system was full of problems that needed to be addressed. But he was unable to do anything about these woes.

Yet the communists' lock on power remains strong. Fidel's resignation signals no immediate change in government policy, much less an overhaul. Cuba's disenchanted youth have no organized means for expressing their grievances. None took to the streets in the wake of Fidel's resignation to test the government's patience. "You're starting to see more and more examples of dissidence, but they are still not very organized or united," says Laura Pollán, a human-rights activist. But it's a start, and the emergence of dynamic youth protest movements has often breathed new life into dispirited oppositions. How long will it take? No one knows, but the answer might surprise even the country's most optimistic young protesters.

With Monica Campbell in Mexico City

© 2008