To Ohmstede: Yes, many people live beyond their measn. They are not necessarily stupid. Inflation has outpaced salary for a significant number of occupations over the last decade. The financial institutions are among the most aggressive sale forces that exist, Way back in the 70's when telemarketing was big, banks did more telemarketing than any other business--selling loans to consumers, farmers and small businesses. Look at the ads on tv, the junk mail and spam. The offers for loans and credit cards are outrageous. My parents generation had repeated and strong message that acceptable consumer debt was home mortgage. My generation had mixed messages. The generation below me (I am 55) has an overwhelming message that debt is normal. Did you notice that as soon as the recent tax rebate/credit was passed that financial institutions immediately began advertising cards to spend the money without having to wait for the credit?
Some people are stupid and/or greedy but many are not. The sad part is that the people who got sucked in are getting help, the lending institutions continue to pay bonuses in excess of a million dollars to executives and often several hundred thousand to people on the board of directors while the people who are saving and investing for retirement with a 100 shares of their companies or in mutual funds that own the companies are getting shafted as the stock prices plummet.
JUDGMENT CALLS
Robert J. Samuelson
The Specter of Stagflation
We're not there yet, but the Federal Reserve may be steering us back to the 1970s by underestimating the danger of higher inflation.
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"Stagflation" is back in the headlines—but the term is being misused, and that's an important story. We're told by eminent newspapers and commentators that stagflation is the messy mixture of both high inflation and high unemployment. It isn't. Stagflation, at least as the concept was initially understood in the 1970s, meant something different. Yes, it signified the simultaneous occurrence of high inflation, high unemployment and slow economic growth; but its defining feature was the persistence of this poisonous combination over long periods of time. Although we're drifting in that direction, we're not there yet.
Let's see why this is a distinction with a difference. The coexistence of high (or rising) inflation with high (or rising) unemployment is not an abnormal event. But it's usually temporary, because the higher unemployment—stemming from an economic slowdown or recession—helps control inflation. Companies can't pass along price increases; they're stingier with wage increases. It's only when this restraining process is not allowed to work that inflationary psychology and practices take root, creating a self-fulfilling wage-price spiral. Higher wages push up prices, which then push up wages. Then we get stagflation: a semipermanent fusion of high joblessness and inflation.
Naturally, no leading politician is willing to acknowledge the self-evident implication: that recessions, though unwanted and hurtful to many, are not just inevitable; sometimes they're also necessary to prevent the larger and longer-lasting harm that would result from resurgent inflation. Interestingly, many economists (even those in academia and private industry who, presumably, have more freedom to speak their minds) suffer the same deficiency. They treat every potential recession as a policy failure when it is often simply part of the business cycle. They thus contribute to a political and intellectual climate that, focused on avoiding or minimizing any recession, may have the perverse result of aggravating inflation and leading to much harsher recessions later. The stagflation that began in the late 1960s and resulted from this attitude was indeed dreadful: from 1969 to 1982, inflation averaged 7.5 percent annually and unemployment 6.4 percent.
What's renewed interest in stagflation is the latest consumer price index (CPI), the government's main inflation indicator. Released last week, it makes for discouraging reading. For the year ending in January, all prices were up 4.3 percent. Excluding the temporary surges after Katrina, inflation hasn't been higher since July 1991. Even eliminating food and energy prices (about a quarter of the index), January's year-to-year increase was 2.5 percent.
All these figures exceed the Federal Reserve's informal inflation target of 1 to 2 percent a year: a range deemed so low that it's effective price stability. And these aren't the truly disturbing numbers. The more upsetting figures are those for the last three months. In this period, the full CPI rose at a 6.8 percent annual rate. Without food and energy, the increase was still 3.1 percent. Medical services were up 5.1 percent, women's and girls' apparel 7.3 percent, and water, sewer and trash collection fees 6.7 percent (again, at annual rates). Inflation is accelerating.
Price increases of individual items can have many immediate causes: poor harvests for food; OPEC for energy; uncompetitive markets for health care; corporate market power for drugs; union market power for construction costs. But persistent inflation—the general rise of most prices—has only one cause: too much money chasing too few goods. It's not a random accident or an act of nature. The Federal Reserve regulates the nation's supply of money and credit. The Fed creates inflation and can control it.
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