The Return of the Bear

What is the legacy of Vladimir Putin? Is he the man who returned Russia to its long history of autocracy and persecution? Or will he be better remembered for restoring the economic and geopolitical greatness of the country? In the week before the presidential elections there—in which voters will almost certainly ratify Putin's chosen successor, Dmitry Medvedev—we posed the question of Putin's legacy to Russian experts around the world, including a former member of the U.S. National Security Council and a granddaughter of Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev. They cautioned that Putin's legacy will continue to evolve, as he's set to become prime minister in the next administration and likely to wield behind-the-scenes power. Even so, their responses make for a surprising and timely progress report.

The Savior
In the West, we have a bad habit of trying to write Russians' history for them. The question we should ask is, "What is Putin's legacy as Russians see it?" Here's how I think their historians will write it.

Putin cannot possibly be evaluated apart from the first post-Soviet decade. For nearly three quarters of Russians, the 1990s meant the collapse of their state and standard of living. It was also seen as a loss of sovereignty at home and abroad. Russians believed that their country was semi-occupied by foreigners—from shock-therapy economists to human-rights advocates. They saw Yeltsin as a U.S. supplicant. Putin changed this. He ended Russia's collapse at home and re-asserted its independence abroad. That's how most Russians see it, and it's an entirely plausible and heartfelt evaluation of Putin's legacy.

But the West (and a few Russians) say the cost has been too high: a loss of democracy and good ties with the U.S. Yet there's an element of historical amnesia here. Democracy began under Gorbachev, not Yeltsin. And de-democratization began under Yeltsin, not Putin. Moreover, in the '90s, the destruction of the middle class by inflation and poverty made further democratization impossible. Today, with standards of living rising, a renewal of democracy is at least possible.

As for U.S-Russia relations, could Putin have made more moves like Gorbachev? Sure. But keep in mind, neither Clinton nor Bush made Reagan-like concessions. For example, Putin helped the U.S. with its first military campaign in Afghanistan, but all he got in return was an expansion of NATO and America's withdrawal from the ABM treaty.
—Stephen Cohen, professor of Russian studies and history at New York University

Lazy Oil Guzzler
Vladimir Putin's legacy is only half-revealed. Putin spent the last eight years rebuilding the influence and control structures of the Kremlin. He extended that control to the commanding heights of the economy, creating national-champion companies controlled by the state.

As a result, three things happened. First, the country has got its self-respect back. Second, the economy has turned around: GDP has grown, wages have increased and poverty is down. Third, Russians have a sense of hope again, a restored sense of optimism about the future.
But the question now is whether Putin and Medvedev will be able to use that control to diversify the economy away from oil and gas dependency. In the past eight years, Russia's economy has fallen into the oil trap: the country became lazy on the back of oil revenues, putting off necessary reforms like modernizing the manufacturing sector, creating a pensions system, tackling corruption, improving legal protections and streamlining the bureaucracy.
That means the hard part is still to come. And the clock is ticking. The government has been relying on high oil prices to meet the rising expectations of its people, and we know that's a dangerous assumption. We need to see a much more active phase of economic reform and diversification over the next four or five years. Only then can we start talking about Putin's legacy.
—Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Russia's URALSIB Bank