The Return of the Bear

Crony Government
Even if we could look into his eyes, unlike George W. Bush, most of us would have trouble gaining a sense of Vladimir Putin's soul. What we would see is a leader who guided his country out of near-bankruptcy in August 1998 to its status as an energy superpower. Today, less than a decade later, Russia is back. Its once empty treasury is now filled with the world's third largest hoard of foreign currencies and gold. This is not due to Putin. It is because Russia nearly doubled its oil production and exports when oil prices jumped from $15 a barrel oil prices in 1998 to $100 today. But if Putin cannot take credit for Russia's full treasury, he nonetheless managed to regain control of most of the country's oil and gas companies and transform them into national champions serving Russia's national needs. No wonder close to 80 percent of Russians give him credit for the doubling of the country's GDP and reducing poverty. It is also true that corruption has worsened. Putin has cracked down on one form of corruption while creating another in the process. He took property from the original oligarchs, but he turned most of it over to his former comrades at the KGB. Now you have people who are in the government and simultaneously have positions and ownership of some of those companies. A new class of oligarchs has emerged.
—Marshall I. Goldman, senior scholar at Harvard's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies

Vladimir the Lucky
President Putin had a tremendous stroke of luck: the oil prices have grown about five times during his tenure. Russia's rebound is indeed impressive. The economy has steadily grown, people's living standards are higher than ever. Once again Russia is reckoned with in the world.

Putin also used his good fortunes to recentralize the government. He gained control over the national television, local governors, the legislature and the judiciary. To the people, Putin offered a nonparticipation pact: the government delivers, and they don't meddle in politics. While early on he mostly drew on sophisticated manipulation, closer to the end of Putin's term his regime increasingly resorted toward police practices.

Putin put in a loyal successor and will himself remain a leading political player. He is anxious that Russia stay his course. But his critics warn that in a system of deinstitutionalized politics economic development will not be sustained.
—Masha Lipman, editor of Pro et Contra, a publication of the Carnegie Moscow Center

Restoring Pride
Putin's presidency could go down in history as the Great Restoration. After the profound national humiliation of the 1990s—a "Time of Troubles" in the minds of the vast majority of Russians—Putin has overseen an unexpectedly rapid economic recovery, rebuilt an authoritative state, returned Russia to the world stage, and restored Russian pride, minus the bombast of Soviet ideology and with a focus on the pragmatic (some would say cynical) pursuit of wealth and power. Circumstance and good fortune—high energy prices, disarray in the West—may have eased the task, but the outcome was not inevitable: eight years ago, many in the West had written Russia off as a serious world power, and many Russians feared they were right. Putin has changed that. Although many may find Putin's methods unsavory, we need to recognize that his leadership was critical to the resurgence of Russia, and, as a result, we can no longer ignore Russia as we seek to promote our own interests around the globe.
—Thomas Graham, former member of the U.S. National Security Council (2004-2007) and a senior director at Kissinger Associates Inc.

A 'Gentleman of Leisure'?
Vladimir Putin is changing the name of his job but is still staying as a national leader, so his legacy, to put it mildly, is far from being complete. However, he accepted the job of prime minister not because it was a choice but because it was a necessity. It is a very challenging job because if inflation goes up, if energy prices go down or if there are any economic problems, it is the prime minister, not the president, who is blamed for these things. Putin has made it very clear that he does not want to work 16-hour days and as prime minister he would start delegating responsibility to others. If this happens, it is likely that Medvedev's entourage will tell him, "Mr. President, you can see that the prime minister is becoming a gentleman of leisure and you have to exercise your own authority."
—Dimitri K. Simes, president of The Nixon Center and author of "After the Collapse: Russia Seeks its Place as a Great Power"

Ana Azpurua, Lily Huang, Christopher Flavelle, Karen Pinchin and Seth Colter Walls contributed to this report.

© 2008