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Hillary’s Math Problem
So at the end of regulation, Hillary's the nominee, right? Actually, this much-too-generous scenario (which doesn't even account for Texas's weird "pri-caucus" system, which favors Obama in delegate selection) still leaves the pledged-delegate score at 1,634 for Obama to 1,576 for Clinton. That's a 58-delegate lead.
Let's say the Democratic National Committee schedules do-overs in Florida and (heavily African-American) Michigan. Hillary wins big yet again. But the chances of her netting 56 delegates out of those two states would require two more huge margins. (Unfortunately the Slate calculator isn't helping me here.)
So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.
For all of those who have been trashing me for saying this thing is over, please feel free to do your own math. Give Hillary 75 percent in Kentucky and Indiana. Give her a blowout in Oregon. You will still have a hard time getting her through the process with a pledged-delegate lead.
The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.
Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.
© 2008
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Member Comments
Posted By: zxc.jones @ 05/22/2008 6:17:35 PM
Comment: I first heard about Clintons attempt at changing the delegate math at www.whitewidowreport.com Senator Clinton is a Great politician and I applaud her for her efforts. But attempting to push the argument that the delegate math has changed prior to the rules committee convening on May 31st is a bit of a stretch. Even with Michigan and Florida seated she still loses. Its time to let it go???
Posted By: JerzyDevil @ 05/06/2008 11:44:06 PM
Comment: That is exactly what superdelegates are for: to supplement rational thinking to illogical math. Those states Obama won, in themselves, are insufficient. Florida and Michigan will be seated and it will become obvious that Hillary should be the nominee. Any superdelegate who does not understand this should assign his/her vote to someone who does. God bless our country.
Posted By: treetracker @ 03/26/2008 2:36:31 PM
Comment: Hillary's Washington Prayer Group (now his explains a lot):
"The Fellowship believes that the elite win power by the will of God, who uses them for his purposes. Its mission is to help the powerful understand their role in God's plan."
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2007/09/hillarys-prayer-2.html