Judgment Day in Wisconsin

The ad correctly states that there was eyewitness testimony at the trial. The main eyewitness, a transvestite prostitute who was living as a female at the time, said she'd seen the defendant coming and going from Kamps' apartment on the night in question.  At one point, she was interviewed by law enforcement under hypnosis, after already having been exposed to some of the characteristics of Armstrong and his car. The lineup from which she singled him out consisted of Armstrong, who called attention to himself by going limp to protest the process, and four police officers, at least two of whom wore what were obviously wigs. Even the witness said the lineup was fixed. She recanted her statements, then recanted her recantation.

The ad also mentions "fingerprints" at the crime scene. But only one of them, which was found on a water bong, was Armstrong's. And the fingerprint didn't bear on whether he murdered Kamps, since he had stated that he visited the victim on the night in question.

As for blood under Armstrong's fingernails, as the ad says, there were traces of human blood found under his thumbnails and the nails of two of his toes. But there wasn't enough of it for the crime lab to be able to identify who it was from or how old it was. Armstrong presented two credible, corroborated alternative explanations for how the blood got there, including the fact that he'd fallen and had a bloody knee.

The forensics experts analyzing semen found on the victim's bathrobe could only conclude that it came from a person with Type A blood, which is the kind most people have. The experts also concluded that several hairs found at the scene were "similar" to or "consistent" with the defendant's by comparing its characteristics with those of Armstrong's hair, the usual method for hair analysis at the time.

Armstrong long ago had been turned down for a new trial after DNA tests eliminated him as the source of the semen. But in 2001, he filed a fresh motion based on the fact that new DNA testing also excluded him as the source of two hairs on Kamps' bathrobe belt. Those hairs had played a significant role in the case because the belt was found draped across Kamps' body. One of Armstrong's lawyers at the argument before the high court was Barry Scheck of the Innocence Project, which helps defendants whose guilt may be in doubt due to post-conviction DNA testing.

Butler, in his opinion, said the DNA test results were too important to ignore, given that the state had played up the physical evidence to the jury:

Butler: [T]he State presented the physical evidence as affirmative proof of guilt, an assertion that was inconsistent with what the later DNA analysis revealed. ...

The DNA evidence discredits one of the pivotal pieces of proof forming the very foundation of the state's case.

Three justices agreed with Butler. Three others dissented, saying the new evidence didn't meet the standard of creating "a reasonable probability that a different result would be reached at a new trial," in the words of Justice Patience Drake Roggensack.

Armstrong is easy to villainize. He was convicted of three rapes in New Mexico before coming to Wisconsin. And he may be found guilty in this case again; his new trial is pending. But some Madison residents have long held doubts about the conviction. "This has been one of the great unresolved, much-debated cases here," said David Callendar, who knew the victim and is now a reporter at the local Capital Times, in an interview with FactCheck.org. And by not mentioning the new DNA evidence, the ad leads viewers to think that Butler's decision was ill-considered.

The ad claims also that Butler "has sided with criminals nearly 60 percent of the time," but that's in dispute. The Butler camp says he has voted to uphold criminal convictions in 97 percent of cases brought before the court, and the campaign sent us a  link to a Wisconsin Law Journal piece showing that in the 2006-2007 term, Butler voted with the majority on criminal cases 89 percent of the time, the second highest percentage of the seven justices. We tried to reach the Coalition for America's Families several times over two days, but our calls were not returned. We still don't know exactly how it derived its 60 percent figure.

Despite the fact that we can't conclusively reconcile the numbers from the coalition and the Butler campaign, it's clear to us that the "Armstrong" ad's presentation of facts about the murder case is meant to lead viewers to believe that Butler disregarded overwhelming evidence against Armstrong in setting him free. It doesn't mention the new DNA results, which have led to reversals of convictions in numerous cases nationwide in recent years. It dupes voters by bypassing one of the most important aspects of the case, and the reason for Butler's decision.