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No Clarity: Nationally, Democrats remain split
CAMPAIGN 2008

The Stalemate Continues

Hillary Clinton has battled back to a virtual dead heat with Barack Obama, according to the latest NEWSWEEK Poll. And on the major issue, the economy, neither candidate is pulling ahead.

 
 
 

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Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary victories in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island have revived her near-dead campaign and brought her into a statistical dead heat with Sen. Barack Obama among registered Democrats and Democratic leaners, according to a new national NEWSWEEK Poll. The survey found that Clinton has erased the once-commanding lead that Obama held in most national polls following his 11 straight victories in February's primaries and caucuses. Obama is the favored nominee among 45 percent of Democrats, compared with 44 percent for Clinton, according to the poll, which was based on telephone interviews with 1,215 registered voters March 5-6.

The poll also found that Democratic voters are ready to rally around the candidate they trust most to improve the economy, amid fears of a recession. But neither candidate has been able to lock up that issue, or many others, and the vast majority (69 percent) of Democratic voters now support the idea of a "dream ticket"--leaving aside the crucial question of who runs on top.

What's striking is that the fundamentals remain largely the same. Obama gets overwhelming support from blacks (80 percent to 10 percent), those under 40 (60 percent to 35 percent) and voters who have graduated from college (50 percent to 41 percent); Hillary wins the majority of whites (53 percent to 35 percent), voters over 60 (51 percent to 33 percent) and those who have a high-school education or less (48 percent to 38 percent). Along gender lines, Obama wins male voters by a 10-point margin (50 percent to 40 percent), while Clinton retains her lead with female voters (46 percent to 40 percent).

Close to half (47 percent) of Democrats and Democratic leanders said that "the economy and jobs" would determine their ballot, but voters are split on which candidate they trust more on this topic (Obama, 43 percent; Clinton, 42 percent). Another quarter of voters cited health care, and 16 percent said the Iraq War. While the ability to bring about change still matters most to Democrats (30 percent of respondents), experience is gaining ground, with 21 percent citing it as the quality they covet most in a candidate. That's up from 15 percent in the last NEWSWEEK Poll in February. 

As the candidate running hardest on the platform of experience, Clinton was seen by a wide margin (61 percent to 22 percent) as the candidate possessing that quality. Obama, meanwhile, retained his ironclad aura as an agent of change: he holds an 8-point margin (47 percent to 39 percent) over Clinton as the candidate that Democratic voters believe is most able to "bring about the changes this country needs." On the issue of preparedness for office, more Democratic voters believe Clinton's plan for mending the nation is better than Obama's (45 percent to 37 percent). But by a 41-point margin the same voters laud Obama as the candidate who can inspire the country. Worse for Clinton, 58 percent of Democrats seemed to value aura over argument when they said that the ability to inspire people is more important than having a winning plan of action. And the Illinois senator is seen by most Democrats as the candidate who can bring people together (53 percent to 32 percent for Clinton).

Arizona Sen. John McCain, who clinched the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, may have already benefited from the Democratic infighting. Many Democrats in the NEWSWEEK Poll said that they would back McCain if their favorite candidate were not the nominee. Perhaps as a result, each candidate remains in a statistical tie with the former POW in a mock November matchup. In a test election, there Obama beat McCain 46 percent to 45 percent, and Clinton triumphed 48 percent to 46 percent.

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  • Posted By: democracy_of_we the people_US @ 04/06/2008 7:04:51 AM

    4.6. 2008 new york from the desk of associate editor " jungle democracies, doctrines of cat and mouse, on weaker people, entities, nations, illegal aliens by most powerful people, human_gods, devil in democracies, powerful entities, , powerful nations, superpowers and allies (superpower as russia, usa, china, japan south korea, mini superpower as india et al for purpose of gains, ambitions, greed of powers to entertain animal rationalities jungle democracy, et al. author : the revend kamal karna k roy.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/05/AR2008040502348_Comments.html

  • Posted By: nmcalpine @ 03/27/2008 11:58:18 AM

    You sound like a hateful person. I think all that hatred in you heart might be clouding your better judgement. I have read plenty of your post and you are not a very good representitive of the type of person Jesus IS. Are you really a holeyroller? You lack compassion,understanding and love. I really think that you would do all christians a favor if you represented christian values better.

  • Posted By: nmcalpine @ 03/27/2008 11:30:57 AM

    I agree with your comment. I think most Americans will be smart enough to rally around their party's nominee. I think that right now that peoples emotions for their candidate are getting the best of them and they are saying things that they don't necessarily mean.

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