'Political Tsunami'

"Stay calm. Stay cool. Stay home." That was the message on Jeff Ooi's blog following his landslide victory in the election for a parliamentary seat in Malaysia on March 8. After Ooi and dozens of other opposition politicians romped home victorious, they wanted to make sure there were no reasons for "any party to declare an emergency." Text messages warning people to stay home and avoid victory parades have been circulating since then.

The National Front, the ruling coalition in Malaysia, has been in power with a very comfortable majority since the country became independent in 1957, but on March 8 it was blindsided by its worst poll results ever. In the country's 12th general election opposition parties took 82 seats in the federal parliament, compared to 20 seats in the last election, in 2004. Significant political casualties for the coalition included the minister of works; the minister of women, family and community development; and the minister of information. Five of the 13 state legislatures also fell to opposition control. These included Penang, the home state of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, and Kedah, the home state of long-serving previous prime minister Mahathir Mohamed. "There is a political tsunami," says veteran opposition leader Lim Kit Siang. "This is unprecedented."

Abdullah, like most of the ruling coalition, looked dazed and exhausted as the scale of the rout became apparent. He accepted the defeats, saying "This is democracy at work," and urged people to remain calm. But he did not hold his traditional postelection press conference, and he moved up his audience with the king to confirm that the ruling coalition still had enough support to form the next government.

In contrast, former coalition leader turned opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim could not contain his excitement at the turn of events. "This is a defining moment, unprecedented in our nation's history. Today a new chapter has opened," he told reporters at a packed news conference at his house. "The people have expressed in no uncertain terms that they want accountability, transparency and the rule of law." Anwar was prevented from running for office by a five-year ban from official politics that expires on April 15. That ban was part of the sentence handed down to him after an acrimonious political split with Mahathir in 1998.

Back in the 2004 elections, Anwar's Justice Party garnered only one parliamentary seat. But this time around it won 31 seats, plus another 40 seats at the state level. The other opposition parties garnered 51 parliamentary seats and 156 state-level seats, compared to 13 and 51, respectively, back in 2004.

Several major parties lost significant ground. Malaysia is a multiethnic country in which Muslim Malays make up around 60 percent of the population, followed by ethnic Chinese, at about 25 percent and ethnic Indians, at around 10 percent. Political parties are largely divided along ethnic lines. The ruling coalition, led by the United Malay National Organization (UMNO) and including the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), all took a hit. Only the stalwart support of the states of Sabah and Sarawak on the island of Borneo ensured overall victory for the National Front. "This is the biggest defeat," outgoing Penang Chief Minister Koh Tsu Koon told reporters. "I feel sad and surprised. I urge all National Front members to stay calm and not to take any action that could jeopardize peace and security."

Back in 1969 the ruling coalition lost its two-thirds majority in parliament. In the ensuing political jostling, bloody race riots broke out between Malays and ethnic Chinese three days after the polling. One of the triggers had been a victory procession through the streets of Kuala Lumpur, and one of the longterm outcomes was a discrimination policy that favored ethnic Malays and is still partly in place.