Powering the Future

How viable do you expect these new technologies will be in actually making a dent in emissions?
Scientists tell us we need to reduce greenhouse gases 50 percent worldwide and maybe 80 percent in the United States over the next four decades. And many of the technologies [I've mentioned] have great capacity. But the book isn't to say maybe this company will win or that company will win. It provides a guidebook if you want to participate as an inventor, investor or informed citizen.

Still, how do you go about measuring success? What kind of benchmarks are being set for emissions reductions, and how close will these technologies get us to meeting them?
The Lieberman-Warner bill is the first global-warming bill ever to pass the Senate Environment Committee, and it will come up on the floor of the Senate in a couple of months. It sets a benchmark of 20 percent reduction in America's global-warming pollution by 2020. That is a good first step, but over time we'll find we can achieve these reductions far more cheaply than anyone believes.

With acid rain, the Clean Air Act passed in 1990 using a cap-and-trade system. We achieved 50 percent reductions nationwide at about 10 percent the cost predicted. So in 2005, in a little-known story, President Bush ordered another 70 percent cut in sulfur-dioxide emissions because ingenuity had made it so cheap to reduce sulfur that we could ratchet it down to levels scientists tell us will solve the problem. I think that's what we'll see once we get on this path.

The Bush administration supports investment in alternative-energy technologies as the best way to address climate change. How does what you're calling for differ?
The president has not yet supported capping global-warming pollution and putting a mandatory limit in place. The reason that is so important is that we have never solved any air pollution problem anywhere in the world without a legal limit on the amount of waste that can be spewed into air. So while the president has been favorably inclined to business having a role, he has not yet taken the leadership step of creating the level playing field that will allow these alternative-energy investments to flourish.

If you want to inspire the inventors, offer them a prize. But instead of offering just one prize of a million or even a billion dollars, a cap-and-trade system offers a stream of megaprizes to people who figure out how we can innovate our way out of the fix we find ourselves. That's the power of a policy that puts a limit on greenhouse gases.

© 2008