Winning The Battle Of Kosovo

To many nations, that American ideal looks self-defeating in a world of multiplying separatist movements. Spain, Cyprus and many others say they fear accepting Kosovo's sovereignty would establish a precedent for separatists in their own countries. Canadians have voiced similar concerns, though Canada has stopped short of rejecting Kosovo altogether. Vaclav Klaus, president of the Czech Republic, argued recently that Kosovo's independence would be a "very good example for other parts of countries that are not happy with what is going on around them."

Kosovo argues that it has on its side the countries that truly matter—the United States and the biggest EU nations. But Vladimir Petrovic, temporary chargé d'affaires at the Serbian Embassy to the United States, points out that Kosovo is missing virtually all of Africa and Latin America. After all, he says, "there's not a single country in Africa that doesn't have some kind of minorities of different ethnic groups." Also in Serbia's camp is China, navigating its issues with Taiwan's longstanding quest for independence, and its belief that Kosovo is a European issue, with few links to Chinese economic or security interests.

Then there is Russia. Linked to Serbia by cultural and ethnic ties, an independent Kosovo poses a danger to its expansionist goals. Diplomats say Russia is trying to divide the United States from Europe, and regain the influence it lost in the Balkans during the 1990s, when Russian geopolitical power was at a low point. Russia has also used its support for Serbia's position on Kosovo as leverage to get a better deal from Belgrade on a natural-gas pipeline that Russian energy giant Gazprom wants to run from Russia through Serbia to the rest of Europe. Last month, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's president-elect, was in Belgrade with the head of Gazprom to work out details of the pipeline deal, and to blast Kosovo's "illegal" declaration of independence.

Russian support gives Serbia a proxy vote in the U.N. Security Council, which prevents Kosovo from taking a seat at the United Nations. Yet this may be something of a Pyrrhic victory. While Serbia is tied to Russia, increasingly a pariah state, little will change for Kosovo. It can join the ranks of Taiwan and others with a quasi-official diplomatic status, backed and protected by the 32 (or possibly more) countries that ultimately recognize it. More crucially, this poor nation can have access to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. And notwithstanding the concerns of Spain and some other EU members, it will retain the support of NATO and the European Union in their ongoing mission there.

Much depends on how Serbia resolves its internal confusion. For most Serbs, the idea of giving up Kosovo is a nonstarter. Yet polls show that 70 percent of Serbs want to move closer to Europe, not to Russia or the big Asian powers. For now, however, that is the way the Serbs are moving: farther from the West, closer to the rest of the world.

© 2008