The upshot: by 2016 U.S. auto employment will be roughly where it is today: 355,000. That's well down from its peak of a half-million at the beginning of this decade, but still not bad for an industry that's been given up for dead. "It's not the dead-and-gone industry that John McCain and Barack Obama would have you believe," says McAlinden.

In fact, there's going to be so much hiring going on, there are fears of a labor shortage—especially for the highly skilled workers needed to operate the increasingly software-driven factories of the future. "Historically, high wages and generous benefits have attracted many workers to this industry," the CAR study stated. "Without them, the Detroit Three may face challenges finding enough people willing to work in their plants."

That wasn't a problem for Tricia Sermeno, who was happy to take one of those new $14-an-hour jobs at GM. "Thankfully, now I have the money to pay my bills and buy groceries," says the 25-year-old mom, who left a $10-an-hour clerk job at an auto supplier. Sermeno is now a health and safety trainer at a GM auto parts factory in Flint, where she toils alongside workers making twice as much. "There's been some resentment in the plant," she says. "But I don't think those people are overpaid. I'm grateful for my job." Sermeno knows she'll never be able to afford the summer cottages and boats that previous generations of auto workers enjoyed. But she's just happy to have found decent work in this economy. "This is the most money I've ever made," says Sermeno, who has an associate's degree and is working on her bachelor's. "I consider myself an educated person. But it doesn't matter what your skill base is; there are no jobs out there now that pay more." Those diminished expectations are one of the key skills auto workers of the future will need.

With Mary Chapman

© 2008