It Was the Economy, Stupid

In choosing a new president, Taiwanese voters focused more on their pocketbooks than fears of Chinese dominance.

Vincent Yu / AP

Good News for China? Ma supporters celebrate his victory Saturday

By Jonathan Adams | Newsweek Web Exclusive

Mar 22, 2008 | Updated: 2:45 p.m. ET Mar 22, 2008

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In its fourth presidential election Saturday, Taiwanese voted overwhelmingly for the candidate backing warmer China ties, potentially ushering in a new era of moderation after eight years of Chen Shui-bian's confrontational approach.

In the end, the Kuomintang Party's Ma Ying-jeou successfully sold himself as the candidate for change, as opposed to four more years of the status quo under Chen's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. Voters embraced widespread expectations that Ma can revive the island's stagnant economy, while rejecting DPP rival Frank Hsieh's scare tactics and negative attacks.

Speaking at a press conference after his victory, Ma said voters had given him a mandate to improve ties with China. But he made clear he would not compromise on Taiwan's sovereignty. "Taiwan should be more open and more pragmatic; we should not isolate ourselves," said Ma. "Freedom and democracy are our most valued possessions—we will defend them with our lives." China considers self-ruled Taiwan a part of its territory that must eventually return, by force if necessary.

Ma's landslide victory (58 percent to his rival's 42 percent in a vote with high turnout) surprised analysts who expected a closer race. The result showed that for Taiwanese voters, the economy trumped national identity—the issue that had been decisive in previous elections. Ma is a Hong Kong-born Mainlander, and some thought that could cripple his chances amid surging Taiwan-first pride. (Under the KMT's one-party rule, a Mainlander minority that arrived in the late 1940s long ruled over a native Taiwanese majority.)

"People think the economy is most important," said analyst George Tsai. "Identity or ethnic difference aren't important enough now to prevent a Mainlander from being elected. And that's a healthy trend for Taiwan's democracy."

Taiwan's economy is strong on some indicators, such as exports and GDP (5.7 percent this past year). But Taiwanese complain of stagnant wages, inflation and fewer job opportunities. They say strong growth is only benefitting a few in the island's high-tech and other sectors, and not trickling down to the lower and middle class. It's popular in Taiwan to refer to an "M-shaped" society, in which inequality has widened and the middle class shrunk. Amid those economic woes, many saw Hsieh's DPP ignoring bread-and-butter issues while instead prioritizing identity politics and needless confrontation with China.

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Posted By: astephen @ 03/28/2008 2:12:10 AM

Enter Your Commentanyone regard or identify himself as so-called taiwanese, will be ridiculous logic,or actully extrememly selfish on the title of human being! let alone so-called DPP,ABSOLUTE HOOLIGANISM!
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Posted By: erinyifang @ 03/26/2008 7:07:42 AM

As a Taiwanese living in Taiwan, we don't have to proclaim for independence because we already are. From political view, China hasn't ruled us for decades, so it's not much point to argue on it. From geographical view, the regional economy would bring all the regional countries closer. It's a trend after post-cold war which is happening anywhere in the world. We elected for Ma just because DPP hasn't helped Taiwan improve much for last 8 years. Taiwan's identity is still a major consensus here. More than the half people here consider themselves as Taiwanese people only. Therefore, the result of the presidential election is much easier to see now. Definitely, Taiwan future has to be decided by Taiwanese people, not by the US nor China even though they might be factors to the decision. If Ma can't do it well, we can elect a better person from DPP in 4 years. It's the democracy we cherish here. And it's the way of improving our living.
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Posted By: erinyifang @ 03/26/2008 6:59:01 AM

As a Taiwanese living in Taiwan, we don't have to proclaim for independence because we already are. From political view, China hasn't ruled us for decades, so it's not much point to argue on it. From geographical view, the regional economy would bring all the regional countries closer. It's a trend after post-cold war which is happening anywhere in the world. We elected for Ma just because DPP hasn't helped Taiwan improve much for last 8 years. Taiwan's identity is still a major consensus here. 70% of the people here consider themselves as Taiwanese people only. Therefore, the result of the presidential election is much easier to see now. Definitely, Taiwan future has to be decided by Taiwanese people, not by the US nor China even though they might be factors to the decision. If Ma can't do it well, we can elect a better person from DPP in 4 years. It's the democracy we cherish here. And it's the way of improving our living.