Menacing Message

But Europe may be another story. One development cited in today's FBI intelligence bulletin is the imminent release of an anti-Muslim video by Geert Wilders, a stridently right-wing member of the Dutch parliament who has made a point of baiting the country's Muslims. Wilders has said he will release the film, which is expected to directly criticize the Koran, by April 1. Dutch authorities, bracing for a backlash, recently increased their security threat level from "limited" to "substantial."

"There is a real possibility of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands," the Dutch counterterrorism office now states on the home page of its Web site.

Today's FBI/Homeland Security bulletin, called a "Joint Homeland Special Assessment," makes no such dire warnings. It does note that Al Qaeda, despite setbacks, has been able to maintain a "robust media and propaganda capability" evidenced by a steady increase in the number of audio- and videotapes from the terror group's leaders. The number of such tapes released by Al Qaeda's As-Sahab media arm jumped from 58 in 2006 to 97 in 2007—with 12 new ones so far in 2008. Just before Zawahiri's tape appeared, Osama bin Laden surfaced in his own audiotape. Like Zawahiri, he too invoked the "siege laid upon Gaza" and other recent developments. "The recent wave of audio statements from Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri over the past week attempts to capitalize on flashpoints—the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iraq and the Danish cartoon controversy—to inspire others to take violent action against what they believe are transgressions against Muslims worldwide," the FBI bulletin states. Among developments that could trigger more such tapes, the FBI bulletin says, are the U.S. presidential election and the release of Wilders film.

One big concern among FBI officials is that the tapes are registering with terrorist "wannabes" and other sympathizers inside the United States. "It's the home-grown guys who are downloading this stuff and watching them on their computers," says Richard Kolko, an FBI spokesman.

Terror Watch appears weekly on Newsweek.com

© 2008