What Power Looks Like

At first glance, anger and frustration aside, it seems unlikely, because national institutions are ineffective beyond their borders and international institutions have not evolved as quickly as global markets, many retaining ownership and management structures dating to the late 1940s with resources inadequate to many global challenges (though recent proposals from Paulson and the U.K. government aim to change that). In fact, the explosion of private money in international markets is marginalizing these institutions, while it makes the global elite more powerful. Thus it is becoming increasingly less likely that any international mechanism can rein in the global elite.

In the short term, the only real change we may see is the spread of the superclass—and the tension around it—to new enclaves. Indians like steel titan Lakshmi Mittal, dueling billionaire brothers Mukesh and Anil Ambani, and global auto magnate Ratan Tata are joining the hundreds of the superrich in Russia (the leading creator of new billionaires on the recent Forbes list) and China (where half of the 25 richest people in the country are under 40). At the same time, the relative importance of Asian governments and militaries is also growing, with China the No. 2 defense spender in the world and India upping its defense expenditures more than 40 percent in the past five years, making it the No. 3 spender in purchasing power-adjusted terms. So it is more likely that the superclass itself will change than that it will be contained.

In the future, this may mean the decline of the old transatlantic venues for convening the elite and the rise of new ones in Asia. With members of the changing superclass defining global conventional wisdom, we are likely to see a shift in the very values that shape world affairs. Leaders from Asian nations may, for example, have different ideas about the role of the state and of the individual; they may also seek to define them in terms of narrower self-interests than imperial or proselytizing Westerners often did. The rise of petrol statesmen could undercut the gathering support for the fight against fossil-fueled global warming. The new clout of emerging-market CEOs may slow the movement to make corporations more socially and environmentally responsible "citizens," a campaign many in the developing world see as a rich-company, rich-country luxury.

And the more members of the superclass adopt a business-as-usual attitude toward countries that ignore political or social conditions, the less likely the superclass will be to reform itself. In short, while we may have a somewhat different superclass in the future, until the people of the world are more comfortable with creating the kind of strong global governance mechanisms that can contain and regulate many of their activities, the 6,000 will continue to play the greatest role of any group on the planet in defining our times.

© 2008