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There's one big obstacle: Thabo Mbeki. South Africa's lame-duck president is the most powerful actor in the region, and so far he's resisted any calls to get tough with Mugabe. Mark Gevisser, Mbeki's biographer, says the two leaders have had a deep personal connection since the days when both were struggling against white rule, years after most other African countries had achieved independence. "Mbeki made a point of telling me that he considered Mugabe to be a father figure," Gevisser says, adding that Mbeki (19 years younger than Mugabe) has never emerged from the shadow of his old mentor.

No one knows whether a peaceful transition is possible. "It's going to be difficult to choreograph, very complicated—with one central question being how to manage the security forces," says Mark Bellamy, a longtime State Department Africa hand now at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. Tsvangirai, who is widely believed to have won the March vote, has promised that Mugabe will be shielded from prosecution if he steps down, but Mugabe's senior security officials have no such guarantee. "Some of these guys are war criminals or abusers of human rights at the very least," says one well-placed Western diplomat in Harare, asking not to be named on such a sensitive topic. "They definitely know that if Mugabe gets a golden parachute they're not going to get one, and they're doing everything they can to keep him in there." For now Mugabe's enforcers are standing tough. NEWSWEEK has obtained a memo from an internal briefing to a group of police and intelligence officers by Zimbabwe's deputy minister of Home Affairs. "We are a Liberation Movement and will not hand over power," it says. It speaks for itself.

© 2008

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: Military Democrat @ 04/30/2008 12:25:15 PM

    President Mugabe is a hero, a gifted visionary who saw through the white supremacist agenda. The architects of the Lancaster House Diktat( the "compromise" which marked the end of white minority dictatorship in Zimbabwe) had hoped that our black people in 10 years time after signing the diktat would be content with rims and bling bling and we almost did. If not for the tireless efforts of the great revolutionary Robert Mugabe who kept the injustice of land distribution on the agenda.

    The vilification, the allegations of human rights abuses and insinuations that there is no rule of law in Zimbabwe is nothing but a smokescreen to cover the West's true agenda; ruling by proxy and protecting the unfair privileges of the white settlers in Zimbabwe.

    Now they say Robert Mugabe is buying weapons from the Chinese, big deal; I personally offloaded weapons from USAF Lockheed Galaxy C 5 Aircraft in 1997 at Harare Airport. What.

  • Posted By: jaytone @ 04/29/2008 3:34:45 PM

    I'm neither pro ZANU or MDC but there is to much bullshit in the media! As far as the white farmers are concerned...they are victims of their own doing! They were arrogant & racist in black zimbabwe and africa. I personally come from the so called farming region of zimbabwe. I went to best schools successfully white run but black workers were ill treated. these farm invasion would not have been easy had the workers been cared for, respected & represented properly. So i can not understand what they mean when the same white people talk about human rights. It was ok when they were on they could not see suffering of the people below. Everybody in zimbabwe is blame because even people in the cities didnt know the people behind the so called statement "BREAD BASKET OF AFRICA!" Remember spectators who boo & suggest how a game should have been played...only 10 to 15% have ever played past junior level. My point is blaming Mugabe spectaters view & experience! Some people are born to be lead even though you pay for a seasons ticket!! A for financing the army , to dumb people who dont understand National Security must go uncompromised. You can not defend your territory in 2020 with a 1980 air craft & bow & arrows! If the new political party is going to cut army budget then we dont need you!! MDC need to run the business & ZANU national security!! Mugabe is the master in national security in which tsvangirai is to vulnerable. MDC should stop fighting & swallow their pride. To me its 50/50 they need to learn from each other...Stop runnin outside advice when advice is in our culture!! In our culture we respect older people. in our culture you will your true identity & a clear way forward. Media is making people big headed of things they do not know!!

  • Posted By: getzel @ 04/26/2008 10:09:46 PM

    What do Mugabe and the current US President have in common?

    They both come from a long line of Bush people!

    Intelligence analyst: Getzel

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