The Realist

Robert Kagan thinks the 21st century will look a lot like the 19th, marked by struggles between the globe's great powers.

By Christopher Flavelle | Newsweek Web Exclusive

Apr 30, 2008 | Updated: 5:42 p.m. ET Apr 30, 2008

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When John McCain outlined his foreign policy platform in a speech in Los Angeles on March 26, part of the credit went to Robert Kagan, an adviser to McCain's campaign and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In his new book, "The Return of History and the End of Dreams," Kagan argues that the apparent triumph of liberal democracy in the 1990s was fleeting and that an era of renewed great power competition is upon us.

That competition is marked by the tension between two political traditions: Western liberal democracies and Eastern autocracies, primarily a resurgent Russia and a rising China. NEWSWEEK's Christopher Flavelle asked Kagan what those changes mean for the future of U.S. foreign policy and how a John McCain presidency might address them. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: You argue in your new book that the West needs to think harder about how to protect our interests, given the return of great power politics.
Robert Kagan: I think we're going back to something that looks more like the 19th century. We're not talking about isolation and confrontation necessarily. But I think that true realism means that you do have to take into account the nature of the government you're dealing with. Any policy that doesn't recognize that an autocracy like Putin's Russia has special interests as an autocracy is going to get Russia wrong.

What does getting Russia right mean?
It means understanding that there is a competition going on, mostly spurred by Russia, for a sphere of influence, for instance in Georgia and Ukraine. I would hope that the next president would work hard with the allies to convince them that it's very important that NATO make a commitment to both Ukraine and Georgia, so that Russia's not tempted to engage in confrontation and possibly even subversion in those places. Second, I think it's important that the United States and Europe work together on much sounder and more coherent energy security policy. Right now Russia is successfully playing European countries off one another, buying up critical nodes as a means of strengthening its leverage in the energy sector in Europe.

In the 1990s one of the beliefs was that eventually Russia and China would become something close to democracy. Was that too lofty a goal?
The nature of the government in Russia matters. It's been a mistake on the part of Bush administration to allow Putin gradually to consolidate his power really with no protest from the West. Whether it's the consolidation of power within the Kremlin, the gradual destruction of press freedoms, the jailing of rich opponents, the disqualification of opposition parties—at each step the Western response has been pretty minimal. That's a mistake from a strategic point of view as well as from a values point of view. I think the Clinton administration was right when it argued that a democratic Russia was in the interests of the United States and an autocratic Russia was not.

There have been calls for President Bush to boycott the opening ceremony at the Olympics in Beijing. Is that the kind of approach you think would help with China?
It's important that China realize that its internal behavior in the 21st century is not something that the rest of the world has nothing to say about. The goal of having the Olympics in China was clearly political; it was an attempt to burnish China's image and announce its arrival on the international scene. If China is at the same time crushing the rights of some of its people, it's only appropriate that the world respond. I don't see any reason why an American president wouldn't want to just happen to miss those opening ceremonies and make those views known.

Will McCain be able to convince people that it remains important to American security to stay in Iraq?
McCain's position is that he doesn't want to keep American troops in Iraq a minute longer than is absolutely necessary. But I think most Americans understand that a hasty and reckless withdrawal that leaves Iraq not only as a basket case but also as a potential base for terrorists is not in America's interest and really would put America in a position of having to go back in again. I'm hoping that Americans appreciate the fundamental honesty that McCain is offering.

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Posted By: Mwalimu @ 05/03/2008 10:19:04 AM

According to the latest report, the GOP is using Obama to boost all Republican candidates in Mississippi and Louisiana.They are pandering to fear, ignorance, bigotry, and racism. I suppose next they'll be burning crosses. How is McCain addressing this problem? The failure of McCain and the GOP to address the bigotry and racism within their own party dooms all of Robert Kagan's proposals. I should remind everyone that most of the world looks a lot more like Barack Obama than John McCain. By rubber-stamping racism, the GOP will mae this country the most hated nation on the face of the earth. That's one BIG reason to vote for Obama
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Posted By: Mwalimu @ 05/03/2008 1:21:02 AM

Robert Kagan is correct in predicting a future rivalry between the US,China and Russia, but he is totally clueless about the nature of that competition - namely Russia, China, and the United States will compete to see who can the most to poison the planet. The United States, under the Bush Adminstration, has disgraceful record on environmental protection. Whistle blowers are routinely silenced and intimdated. Russia and China record of envornmental protection is just as bad if worst. Like the United States, any one protesting the way China or Russia is destroying the envirornment is silenced. McCain has no idea that this perverted contest is far more dangerous than the conventional arms race of the past - primarily because McCain can't distinguish the Middle East from the OK Corral. According to October, 2007 issue of the National Geographic, the carbon dioxide count was 380 per million. It increases by 2 part per year. When the carbon dixoide level reaches 450 or so, we face mass exinction - and judging from the epidemic of floods and tornadoes plus the melting of the ice cap - global warming is worse than we previously imagined. I haven't said anything about the increase of methane in the atmosphere - which is toxic and dangerous than carbon dioxide. Russia has a vast quantity of methane trapped in its permafrost. If the permafrost starts to melt and the methane escapes we face the end of the world.

Kagan said nothing about this future menace. McCain doesn't recognize that this is a problem that can't be solved by dropping a bomb. (Think of what effect bombing will have on global warming.) McCain is a senile fool and if we elect him, we're even bigger fools than he is.
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Posted By: Mwalimu @ 05/02/2008 5:18:37 PM

Robert Kagan's name should be familiar. He, along with Bill Kristol, founded the Project for a New American Century. He was one of the architects of the war in Iraq. In fact, he was championing an invasion of Iraq, long before 9/11. He along with Bush,Cheney, & Rice lied the the public 937 times to promote the war, and John McCain stopped short of selling tickets for the event. And we are going to entrust our national security with this crew of crooks???? Give me a break.

First of all Kagan has chosen a lousely international model, the 19th Century. The powers of the 19th century wound up fighting World War I, which devastated much of Europe, wiped out a whole generation of young. (about 90% of the solders who fought in World War I died.), and ignited the Russian revolution - which in turn ignited mini-civil wars between Communists and fascists throughout Central Europe. Incidentally World War I wiped out the Russian, Austro-Hungarian,German, and Ottoman empires. Seriously, are we going back to the 19th century as a role model. Are McCain and Kagan insane?

Furthermore the League of Democracies really sounds like the Coalition of the Willing. Europeans don't need such a league because they already have the European Community which, judging from the value of the euro, is working quite well and does promote human rights. (Check out what's going on in Montenegro and Croatia if you don't believe me.)

Besides we are a lousy example of democrcy. Many states have enacted voter ID laws that disenfranchise every one without a valid drivers' license. (for those obsessed with voter fraud, I'll point out that the much-touted election in Iraq in 2005 did not require photo ID's) The Bush Administration pursues illegal wire tapping. The Patriot Act allows President Bush to detain anyone the President considers a suspicious terrorst. Abu Ghraib, Sadam Hussein former torture chamber, became our torture chamber. We've recently decided that waterboarding is not torture. Is it any wonder that the Chinese and Russians, looking at our model of democracy want nothing to do with it?

Finally examine the way McCain and Clinton smear Barack Obama. He has a "funny" name, he has a "funny" racial background. he wore a "funny Muslim costume:, he eats "funny food" He has "funny" reading habits
Does John McCain ever realize that the world is watching our elections. How are they going to react to a president who ridicules their "funny" religions, their "funny" attire, and even the :"funny" names they chose to give their children- "funny" names like Barack and Hussein?

Mccain's foreign policy is dead on arrival. And as a red-blooded patriotic American, I don't buy this "grumpy realist/ idealist" crap. I do not want an ignorant bigot like John McCain representing me.