The Victim Of Success

Sustaining the capital's affluence required an army of ill-paid workers, many of them recent immigrants attracted by the promise of work at the minimum wage of $12 an hour, several times what they could make at home. In the last decade, the city's wealth—and the EU's expansion—attracted 700,000 immigrants, the vast majority of them relatively poor, raising the city's population to 7.4 million. They provided much of the unskilled labor that keeps London ticking. For instance, the vast Canary Wharf office development beside the Thames, now home to many of the largest banks including HSBC and Citigroup, employs more than 1,000 cleaners.

But longtime Londoners began to leave, driven out by high prices as well as the feeling that many publicly funded schools were substandard and that private schools were far too expensive for the average family. Londoners also bemoan the state of the city's infrastructure. Radical plans to overhaul the city's Underground network with a mix of public and private funding have foundered, and despite heavy investment its performance remains patchy. Traffic is horrendous. Five years ago Livingstone introduced the enormously controversial policy of congestion charges, forcing drivers to pay $16 to drive into the city center. Despite opposition, the plan worked—at first. But increases in road works projects and bus traffic have meant that traffic speeds have since fallen back to the sluggish level before the charge was introduced. One study last year found that average speeds were now the lowest of any European capital. The much-publicized woes of Heathrow airport's new Terminal Four put a further spotlight on the inadequacies of this global hub. Visitors also note a new shabbiness in once chic London. In a recent poll by the Internet travel agent TripAdvisor, London emerged not only as the costliest city in Europe but also the dirtiest. "In my view, the quantity of wealth may have improved but not the quality of life," says local M.P. Andrew MacKinlay.

Then there is the perception that crime is on the rise. More than one in four Londoners say they are "very worried" about violent crime compared with a national average of 17 percent. Whatever the reality—official figures suggest a drop in most categories—today's Londoners are fearful of their own streets. Earlier this year Home Secretary Jacqui Smith drew fierce criticism from the media for admitting she was afraid to leave her home in a grim patch of south London after dark. But other middle-class families are leaving in droves—and they're not coming back. That leaves some boroughs short of key white-collar workers, especially where rich gentrifiers are ready to pay hefty sums for older properties with easy access to the center. "The teachers and the social workers are selling up to the people with serious money," says Jules Pipe, the mayor of Hackney. As the next tenant of city hall should know, pleasing existing voters may be just as important as pulling in the next generation.

The question is whether Johnson can do anything about the problems. He has no background as an administrator and his record as an M.P.—he was fired from a senior party post for lying over an extramarital affair—is uninspiring. With a limited budget of $22 billion, the Tory mayor will be dependent on the good will of a Labour government that has been grudging in its support for the city. For instance, it took almost a decade to win government backing for the $32 billion Crossrail scheme—a new rail link across the city—approved last year. More important, the mayor is at the mercy of the same market forces that account for London's rise. Prosperity, after all, has its price.

© 2008