Will There Be Cake?
Obama, Clinton face a muddled path, whatever happens tonight
At 11:30 Monday night Barack Obama had left behind the glitz and glitter of a blowout rally featuring Stevie Wonder and 21,000 cheering fans. He'd trudged to an auto parts factory scheduled to close down soon. There he posed for photos, signed autographs, asked for votes—and then glanced at the press corps tailing his every move. "You look like you need a shift change," he quipped. "Or maybe some red velvet cake."
Obama is working the working-class audiences in Indiana and North Carolina hard. But will there be cake on Tuesday? Will the trips to construction sites, breakfasts in union halls, question-and-answer sessions in lighting factories, and drive-bys at coffee shops and diners pay off with the kind of rally that can put an end to the bleeding and knock Hillary Clinton out of contention?
The indications heading into Tuesday's voting are not exceptionally encouraging for the Obama camp. Judging from the polls, and the sentiments of his closest advisers, Obama appears to have done little to change the post-Rev. Wright, post-Pennsylvania shift among downscale white Democrats who have aligned themselves with Senator Clinton. Obama's aides are bracing for a loss in Indiana, balanced by a win in the far bigger state of North Carolina. But the signs of anxiety and fatigue are everywhere. After the seismic shock of Wright's return to the headlines, and a slew of contradictory national soundings, insiders are wary of predicting much of anything with any certainty.
And that represents a lost opportunity. Tuesday is the last primary day that could fundamentally change the dynamic of the Democratic contest. North Carolina and Indiana together account for 187 pledged delegates, overshadowing Pennsylvania (which has 103 pledged delegates) and roughly equaling the next four states combined. There are only six contests left after Tuesday's vote.
Barring a dramatic turn of events, the battle will shift from the grinding state-by-state slog for primary votes to an inside fight for the hearts and minds of a few hundred undeclared superdelegates. Some of those souls are genuinely undecided; others have been holding out in the hope that one candidate would generate sufficient momentum down the home stretch and demonstrate his or her strength for the fall election. Still others dwell in the handful of states that have yet to vote. What all of them want to know is: who can beat the GOP's John McCain in November?
Barring a dramatic change in the math as a result of Tuesday's voting, Obama is expected to finish the primary season roughly 100 shy of the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Clinton will be around 250 short of the goal line. That figure represents roughly the number of superdelegates who remain undeclared.
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Member Comments
Posted By: powin @ 05/13/2008 4:13:44 PM
Comment: Mr. Alter,
The media's clarion call that it's done with a statistical dead heat between the three prospective contenders for the White House, seems too early to toss FL and MI voters out to sea. CA, FL, MI, PA, OH, MA, NY are a must........and, although I LIKE Obama, he hasn't won the most critical blue states...That's one robust reason to continue this democratic process.
Despite MILLIONS of supporters, Hillary Rodham Clinton has been vehemently vilified because it remains socially acceptable to be sexist. Corporate men dominate the airwaves; these men have held the keys to success, and invariably, they oversee most election coverage (Philadelphia Inquirer).
"Media news people, frequently operating with complete integrity and goodwill, are able to [CONVINCE} themselves that they choose and interpret the news "objectively" and on the basis of professional news values....[Not in this scenario, however.] Voter attention is focused on style and personality ("Yes We Can") --anything but the issues that are of primary concern to the concentrated private power centers that largely finance campaigns and run the government" (Noam Chomsky, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).
Women in the media, too, have been lulled into tolerating it because it is difficult to stand up to SEXISM at the risk of losing their paychecks. It's blatant that women in the media see the disparate treatment of HRC, but have convinced the masses that this pugilist is a pariah.
Without an NIE report read, Senator Obama touts his sound decision-making (as a State Senator) for opposing the War in Iraq. With hindsight, unbeknownst to him, there were no weapons of mass destruction. His argument that he made the right choice is a fallacy: he didn't make any such decision as a U.S. Senator with the emotions of September 11th still riding high and our response to maintain strong national security. Albeit, none of these assertions are earth-moving or original arguments; what is important here is to remind voters that he does not command a bastion of foreign policy knowledge nor does his redundant, "I voted against the war" a viable argument to support his candidacy.
Unfortunately, those who purport that the frontrunner will unite people have already demonstrated that the frontrunner will unite NO one except perhaps the myopic misanthropists, who, most likely, come January 2009, will be in a seething cauldron of woeful, broken promises teeming with scintillating rhetoric.
Share this with the superdelegates.
Posted By: powin @ 05/12/2008 7:48:41 PM
Comment: Alvy,
"[You're] the pompous ass," my friend, and "stupid" is burned into your barking like the b you've shown yourself to be in all of your rebuttals (when you're not stroking your ego, that is). Stop your wimpish paranoia and, if you can comprehend anyone outside of yourself, know this: your blogging IS in a political arena, i.e. Newsweek. I can't believe how f*ing retarded you can be. All points made clear in this post to you and your twisted buddy, I knew I'd find you somewhere.
Posted By: howiefineman @ 05/12/2008 5:30:54 AM
Comment: the biggest haters are the ones responsible for the republicans being in office in the first place: The NOBLE SPEAKING EVER RESPECTFUL BEVERAGE CHALLENGED TEDDY KENNEDY, THE RESPECTFUL AND EVER LOYAL LOST IN A LANDSLIDE TO TRICKY DICK OF ALL PEOPLE GEORGE MCGOVERN, HAMAS LOVING JIMMY CARTER, SWIFT BOATED JOHN KERRY, JUST NOW SLITHERING OUT FROM UNDER A ROCK JOHN EDWARDS, VENGEANCE IS MINE I WILL CAST THE DECIDING VOTE AL GORE, YEEEEEEEEEEE-HAAAAAW HOWARD DEAN, ZERO DELEGATE WINNING DODD, NEVER EVEN GOT OFF THE BENCH BILL BRADLEY, FIRST SENATE LEADER IN HALF A CENTURY TO BE VOTED OUT OF OFFICE TOM DASCHEL AND WHO THE HELL CARES BILL RICHARDSON. haha if any of these gyne envy phallically challenged MEN? had done their job this country wouldnt be in this mess. THEY are the ones responsible for BUSH. THEY are the ones responsible for the mess the Democratic Party is in. THEY are the ones responsible for knocking out Senator Clinton because BANTAMWEIGHT BARRY couldnt. Clinton has had their t*ts in a ringer for 16 MONTHS and they still havent been able to do it. hahaha and theyve got the DNC and MSM and all the obamabots helping them out. GOD BLESS AMERICA. oops i mean NO, NO, NO, GOD DAMN AMERICA OFFICIAL ENDORSEMENT BY OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN SPIRITUAL ADVISOR TO OBAMA CRAZY OLD UNCLE JEREMIAH WRIGHT. Hahaha