LIVING POLITICS
Howard Fineman
Decision Tuesday: Indiana
‘The Die Is Cast’
Obama's plan to end the race in Oregon.
Mark the date: May 20. That night, Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign is planning to declare victory. At his campaign headquarters here, the number crunchers figure—with pretty solid justification—that, on that date, after the returns come in from the Oregon Democratic primary, their man will have won an outright majority of the pledged delegates to the 2008 convention in Denver.
"The die is cast," campaign manager David Plouffe told me after the early returns came in Tuesday night, revealing that Obama had won a big victory in North Carolina. According to Plouffe's math, Sen. Hillary Clinton still could win big in West Virginia and Kentucky. But even with those victories, Obama pickups in those states, plus a likely big win in Oregon, would be enough to reach the magic number: 1,627, a clear majority of the pledged delegates.
At that point, his strategists say, Obama will be able to turn to uncommitted superdelegates and say: "I've done my part." Party leaders such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have said, in effect, that they will support whichever candidate wins the most delegates in primaries and caucuses. And, by then, Obama will have done so. I am told that Pelosi herself may remain neutral until the convention, but that 60 or so House members who have been hanging back would be free to commit.
As things now stand, Obama remains short of the 2,025 total delegates he needs. But his campaign is determined to reach that goal by no later than the morning after the May 20 vote.
Obama strategist David Axelrod, confirming the target date, cranked up the May 20 spin machine: no Democratic nominee who had won a majority of pledged delegates has ever been denied the party's nomination, he said, and Obama was not going to be the first.
Clinton's argument, of course, is that winning a majority of "pledged" delegates isn't the real test: to her, it is the total number of delegates won, pledged and "super." More than that, Hillary argues that the 2,025 delegates needed to clinch should more properly be 2,209, if you count, as she does, the Florida and Michigan primaries. (Both states moved the date of their votes up on the calendar in defiance of the national party, and were stripped of their delegates as a result).
Clinton plans to take her case to the party's rules committee on May 31 in Washington. Obama's plan is to make it all seem moot by then, or at least by Oregon.
© 2008


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Member Comments
Posted By: sharenews @ 05/16/2008 7:36:37 PM
Comment: After a lonnnnng work week everyone needs a good laugh. Here you go:
"Obama Jedi Mind Trick"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3_jh2dO78U
Enjoy the weekend!
Posted By: NMartinez @ 05/16/2008 6:30:30 PM
Comment: Catspaw, maybe after 40 something years, trying changing your underwear. You'll feel better about yourself. Don't hold your breath waiting for any change to come from Barry Obama. He's all talk and ears and I'm pretty sure, that Michelle has to remind him to change his underwear constantly, too! Remember when you go to vote, it is a you and all the mothers and wives that get handed the brown stained underwear to clean on laundry day, while it's the Barry Obama's and their old boys club, that we send out there to call us b$tches.
Have a nice day!
Posted By: NMartinez @ 05/16/2008 6:03:38 PM
Comment: You NAILED IT...DEAD ON.
It's not JUST non-educated-working class and low-income 'white voters', that OBAMA has to worry about.
Here is the LIST:
Eldery voters (dismissed and disrespected by the young voters on the internet),
Hispanics (vast majority**** are Hillary supporters, upset by Obama's dismissive behavior)
Middle-class blue-collar workers ( upset by Obama's elitist attitude)
WOMEN (vast majority*** upset at how he treats patronizes Hillary and how he dismisses women)
Other minority races (that feel they have been stepped-on and over by 95% Black voters)
We feel that Obama was selected by the DNC and the media as their poster boy and we had no choice, and that our vote did not count or matter.
Our statement in return will be McCAIN in NOVEMBER.