Burma’s Pain

While relief workers in Thailand await visas, their colleagues in Burma struggle to reach the victims and assess the true scope of the disaster. Teams from Doctors Without Borders who were already in Burma are working their way down to the Ayeyarwady region and are expected to arrive early Thursday. Their main focus will be to avert a second-wave catastrophe of waterborne diseases such as cholera, malaria, and dengue fever. "Waterborne diseases don't start up in the first couple of days," says Paul Heymans, emergency coordinator for Doctors Without Borders. "But we quickly have to get the people water and chlorination. The sooner the better."

The immediate needs of the victims of Cyclone Nargis are clear. What remains to be seen, however, is the long-term impact the storm will have on Burma and its isolationist regime. The generals have held the country and its citizens in an iron grasp since seizing power in 1962. During 46 years of brutal rule and economic mismanagement, the people have at least had enough to eat—thanks to fertile land and a favorable climate. But now food prices are soaring and lines for gas are said to be stretching for miles in Rangoon in the wake of the disaster. The junta's vicious response to last year's protests—sparked by a rise in fuel prices—might have intimidated the long-suffering Burmese into accepting the current hardships. But some analysts feel the lack of assurance about basic necessities could trigger further resistance to the generals. "If they don't get enough proper assistance out in the next couple of days or weeks, the people will be very angry, and that anger might overcome their fear because they may feel they have nothing to lose," Win Min, a lecturer on Burmese affairs at Thailand's Chiang Mai University, told the German press agency DPA.

One sign that the junta is not making concessions to the devastation: it's still planning to push ahead with a referendum on a new constitution that will cement its power indefinitely. The authorities did postpone the voting for two weeks in the worst-affected regions, but the rest of the country will cast its ballots on schedule on May 10. Before the storm the government was expected to declare victory regardless of the true outcome—and in spite of an April poll by a consortium of 10 independent media organizations that found that almost 65 percent of those polled planned to vote no on the referendum. With journalists and aid workers heading into the country, that result may now be harder to hide.

© 2008