The Down-Ticket Effect
Does Barack Obama help or hurt Democrats in local races?
Mississippi's First Congressional District is an unlikely political hotbed. Reliably Democratic territory for a century, the northeastern corner of the Magnolia State went Republican in 1994 and has stayed that way. In the last decade, incumbent Roger Wicker has routinely cruised to victory with margins of 30 percent. But when Gov. Haley Barbour appointed Wicker to fill out the unexpired term of retiring GOP Sen. Trent Lott last December, things got competitive. In a special election held late last month, conservative Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis were the top vote-getters, but neither captured the majority needed to clinch a victory. So the two are headed into a May 13 runoff that suddenly has both national congressional campaign committees focusing on Columbus, Tupelo and the surrounding counties.
The seat hasn't drawn such scrutiny simply because it might flip from Red to Blue. It's also attracting attention because the Davis campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee have run ads linking Childers, who touts his pro-life, pro-gun credentials, to Barack Obama. "[Childers] took Obama's endorsement over our conservative values," a Davis ad claims, pointing out that "when Obama's pastor cursed America, blaming us for 9/11, Childers said nothing." An NRCC ad calls Obama's voting record "the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate."
"I see the kind of issue differences you want, experience differences you want" with an Obama candidacy, says NRCC Chairman Tom Cole, a representative from Oklahoma, about his organization's ad. "I think that will hurt Democrats down ballot."
It wasn't supposed to be this way. At the outset of the campaign, Hillary Clinton was thought to be more of a liability in down-ticket races; she would presumably ignite deep-seated Republican distaste for the former First Lady. Obama was supposed to be the fresh-faced newcomer without any baggage. As one former senior aide to President Bush told NEWSWEEK in January 2006, "He's scarier than she is because nobody says a bad word about him." But after hitting a rough patch in recent weeks, Obama's campaign seemed less scary—and the GOP started trying to tie congressional Democratic candidates to him, in hopes of dragging them down. "There's no question he's an extremely attractive personality and is a very articulate person," says Cole. "But there's not much experience there and there's a decided bent to the left."
The ads were cut prior to Obama's triumphant Tuesday night, when he won handily in North Carolina and nearly upset Clinton in Indiana. Those showings ratcheted up pressure on Clinton to exit the race—and could conceivably alter the local dynamics of his campaign. Cole's spokesperson, who was contacted anew Wednesday morning, declined an opportunity for the NRCC chair to amend the comments he made in an interview prior to the primaries. And in some ways, Obama's fresh burst of momentum may only stoke the GOP's determination to yoke down-ticket Democrats to a presidential contender they see as excessively liberal—and weak among the kinds of white, blue-collar voters who could be key to the outcome of the general election this fall.
Cole's group used the same tactic this past weekend in Louisiana's Sixth District, where there was a special election between Democrat Don Cazayoux and Republican Woody Jenkins (Cazayoux won the race by 3 percent). The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says the ads failed. "I think their strategy fell on its face," says DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen, a representative from Maryland. "What they did was try to test-drive this idea of nationalizing the races behind national political figures and that crashed and burned." The NRCC points to polling showing that Cazayoux's lead dropped significantly in the days leading up to the vote. In a press release following Cazayoux's win, the NRCC characterized their numbers as a harbinger of the "potential toxicity of an Obama candidacy and the possible drag he could have down-ballot this fall." Both national campaigns emphasize that special congressional elections do not pivot around these ads, which are one element in a campaign centered on local politics.
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Member Comments
Posted By: rinaldi sr @ 05/11/2008 6:08:15 AM
Comment: Yep Yep We had my good friend Mike Jackson (the black guy) in a loss to the Cajun.But we (the blacks, whites, Cajuns, and eggheads) put the Cajun in. We just turn out against the guy that allowed David Duke to take his seat in the legislature. America look to Louisiana McCain wants to put our Indian Gov. in as his Veep. If you want to learn about politics check out Louisiana. We have voted for the correct presidential person since 1920. Prediction Obama won Louisiana......
Posted By: rinaldi sr @ 05/11/2008 5:40:47 AM
Comment: "America, America, God shed His grace on thee and crown thy good with brotherhood (and sisterhood) from sea to shining sea" As a child I sang these words. As a 46 year old African American male, married, father of two of the same, my llife has seen great changes. Born under JFK, LBJ, MLK, and the KKK, American has changed. My wife & I both are grads of a Historically Black College,& have pushed our sons, the Democrat and the Independent, to dream big.Our sons both attend Southern University. They know about being judged by their race having lived in the Northeast and now back in Louisisiana. Both have a great hope in America as do their parents. I was once one of those delagates. Inspired by "Run Jessie Run" at he time the youngest delagate at that great event.
What is the point you ask? We knew Jessie would not win, he was making a down payment on a promise. Dr. King's famous "I have a dream speech" starts off with "America has written a bad check to Negro...which has been returned NSF" Many look back 40 years to Dr. King's speech and often quote the "judged not by the color of the skin part." Well here is America's chance, for all Americans to quote King again "blackmen (and women) white men ( and women), Jews and Gentiles, Prodestants, and Catholics to join hands and to sing the words of the old Negro spiritual free at last (of this race thing) free at last (of this gender thing) free at last (of this class thing) thank God Almighty we are free at last".
All of my adult years as a voter have only given me two choices for the last 25 years: Reagan BUSH '80 & 84, BUSH 88, BUSH / Clinton 92, CLINTON 96, 2000 BUSH, 2004 BUSH, 2008 CLINTON ? 2012? Come on America If this keeps up I will have gone from a voter at 18 nearly to my retirement under a Bush or Clinton! Does that not bother you. Change the script please. I want to get out of seeing the same old story. We already know how this will end. GO BIG Obama. Cash that check before the bank goes bankrupt!
Posted By: rinaldi sr @ 05/11/2008 5:39:21 AM
Comment: "America, America, God shed His grace on thee and crown thy good with brotherhood (and sisterhood) from sea to shining sea" As a child I sang these words. As a 46 year old African American male, married, father of two of the same, my llife has seen great changes. Born under JFK, LBJ, MLK, and the KKK, American has changed. My wife & I both are grads of a Historically Black College,& have pushed our sons, the Democrat and the Independent, to dream big.Our sons both attend Southern University. They know about being judged by their race having lived in the Northeast and now back in Louisisiana. Both have a great hope in America as do their parents. I was once one of those delagates. Inspired by "Run Jessie Run" at he time the youngest delagate at that great event.
What is the point you ask? We knew Jessie would not win, he was making a down payment on a promise. Dr. King's famous "I have a dream speech" starts off with "America has written a bad check to Negro...which has been returned NSF" Many look back 40 years to Dr. King's speech and often quote the "judged not by the color of the skin part." Well here is America's chance, for all Americans to quote King again "blackmen (and women) white men ( and women), Jews and Gentiles, Prodestants, and Catholics to join hands and to sing the words of the old Negro spiritual free at last (of this race thing) free at last (of this gender thing) free at last (of this class thing) thank God Almighty we are free at last".
All of my adult years as a voter have only given me two choices for the last 25 years: Reagan BUSH '80 & 84, BUSH 88, BUSH / Clinton 92, CLINTON 96, 2000 BUSH, 2004 BUSH, 2008 CLINTON ? 2012? Come on America If this keeps up I will have gone from a voter at 18 nearly to my retirement under a Bush or Clinton! Does that not bother you. Change the script please. I want to get out of seeing the same old story. We already know how this will end. GO BIG Obama. Cash that check before the bank goes bankrupt!