The Down-Ticket Effect

Now that Obama's campaign has regained its mojo after Tuesday's primaries, how much of a drag will he be in Mississippi's First District? "His liberalism puts at risk some of the voters that Democrats need as well as the ones he attracts, your classic Reagan Democrat voters who tend to be socially conservative, tough on defense," says Cole. "Those people, I think they have some questions about Obama. It's not clear to me whether or not seniors, who tend to put an emphasis on experience … will find him as attractive once we get down to decision time." Not all Republicans are on board with the tactic, including Newt Gingrich. In a May 6 column, he argued that the Cazayoux-Jenkins race in Louisiana was a failure for the Republicans and "if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti-Reverend Wright, or [if Senator Clinton wins], anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail."

The Childers campaign, which, citing their busy schedule, couldn't arrange for an interview with the candidate, seemed on edge when the Davis ad first rolled out. Its leaders released a response ad criticizing Republicans for making claims about politicians that Childers has never met. Childers, speaking to a television reporter, disputed claims that Obama ever endorsed his campaign. But about a week out from the election, the campaign may not need to be so worried. Childers's pollster, John Anzalone, hasn't seen an erosion in the white vote and is encouraged by the exit polls that came out of North Carolina, where Obama was picking up 30 to 40 percent of the white vote and scoring high with independents. "After putting up this Obama and Wright stuff, we've still led the special election consistently," he says, adding that the ads may even cause a backlash among black voters, who make up 27 percent of the district population. "I think you might see them turning out in higher numbers." Richard Forgette, chairman of the political science department at University of Mississippi, agrees. "I think that to the extent to which Obama is emerging as the Democratic nominee, it's going to elevate the turnout for African-Americans," he says.

The DCCC says the ads are not a cause for worry. Obama easily carried the Mississippi primary and Van Hollen dismisses the attacks as predictable fare in a congressional race that aligns with a presidential election. "Early on, when we thought Clinton would be the nominee, they began trying to link candidates with Senator Clinton," he says. "Now they think Obama's going to be the nominee, so they're trying to link him with certain candidates. I think it's going to be a failure because the Republicans are on the wrong side of important national issues." Anzalone says he doesn't expect much of a drag effect in a contest so far removed from the presidential race. "In these special elections, there's less of an effect because it's going on a strange date and therefore people aren't going out to vote against Obama," he says. "Obama is not on the ticket." Looking forward to November, he still thinks the conventional wisdom holds: Clinton could damage Democratic candidates, while Obama could lift them by bringing new voters into the fold. "In the end, quite frankly, she's much more divisive [than Obama]," says Anzalone. "Her impressions are set in stone, the concrete has settled and things are not changing. Those people who have unfavorable ratings for her are not going to change."

No matter who wins on Tuesday, or how well the Republican advertising works, the outcome of this election will only cast a small shadow: Wicker's term ends in January 2009, so the victor next Tuesday will be back before the voters in November next year. The residents of the First District might be living in a political battleground just a little bit longer.

© 2008