Burma: Forecasting Cyclones and Weather Disasters | Newsweek Environment

Deadly Forecast

How much did meteorologists know about the cyclone?

By Katie Paul | Newsweek Web Exclusive

May 9, 2008 | Updated: 4:54 p.m. ET May 9, 2008

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Tropical Cyclone Nargis tore through Burma last Friday, but the true extent of the devastation it left remains unclear. The reason: Burma's notoriously secretive and repressive military junta has kept foreign disaster-relief workers out. Now the government, which calls the country Myanmar, is being blamed for not having done enough to warn its own people of a storm that, by some predictions, could eventually claim the lives of 100,000 people.

Burma's authorities say they began alerting their citizens immediately after the U.N. World Meteorological Organization (WMO)--alerted by a weather station in India--says it informed Burma's Department of Meteorology and Hydrology of the cyclone. That was on April 27, five days ahead of the storm's landfall. The WMO hasn't been able to verify the Burmese claim, but whatever happened, alerting the 6 million people living in the isolated nation's Irrawaddy Delta was no small task. Had the storm shifted slightly to the less populated and mountainous area to the north, the toll would have been far less deadly. "It was thought that this thing would be 50-100 miles further north at landfall, and the difference was everything as far as impact. That little range of hills would've taken a good deal of its speed away," says Jim Andrews, a senior operational weather forecaster at Accuweather.com.

But how much did meteorologists actually know about the catastrophe about to happen? Had the world failed to absorb certain lessons it should have from the nearby tsunami in 2004? And how much was the junta's limited communications infrastructure responsible for preventing early-warning systems from working, leading to the country's worst-ever disaster? To answer these questions, NEWSWEEK's Katie Paul spoke to Paul Drewniak, the Andover, Mass.-based manager of the Global Forecast Center at Weather Services International. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: What kind of advance warning was there for this particular storm?
Paul Drewniak: There are several global computer-forecast guidance models that cover this type of typhoon [also known as a tropical cyclone] in the West Pacific or Bay of Bengal. Two of the most popular we rely on are the American model and the European model. Both of which advertised this typhoon fairly well. Typically, what happens is that the computer models indicate that there will be system as much as 10 days out. They typically don't have the intensity as accurate, but the model sees something out there. In the case of this typhoon, both computer models were indicating that something was going to be in the Bay of Bengal area four to seven days out.

So you knew a week before the storm hit that something might be coming?
Yes. Neither model advertised anywhere near the intensity of this system, with winds up to 150mph, but they were both saying something was going to happen, a week out. That's part of why this was such a tragic story. From the meteorological community's standpoint, this was not a surprise.

Do you know if the junta knew it was coming?
It's a good question, because the global meteorological community knew. Various governments' meteorological agencies--like our National Weather Service--are where these models run. So the Australian government runs their computer models, the Japanese government runs their models, the Europeans run theirs through the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. And they saw that there was a likelihood that there would be at least a moderate typhoon in that area. Of course, it strengthened into a significant typhoon, but it wasn't a surprise.

ok.. in my opinion it doesnt matter where they thought it was going to hit..... they knew its potential.. they should of informed EVERYONE IN THAT COUNTRY AS WELL AS SURROUNDING ONES.. computers are man made.. they make mistakes.. and last time i checked we cant control nature.. so we can never be 100% sure that it will hit there or here.. look at New Orleans.. they underestimated the hurricane.. and the damage was outraging... i think the government in that country should be exiled.. and perhaps disappear... .they are going to go to a very hot place when they die.. and refusing aid into the country to help those who cant help themselves is ridiculous.... they know they wont die from the diseases and conditions like the "average citizen" but if the shoe was on the other foot they would be asking why their leaders werent suppling aid!!! ok so thats one of America's youths opinion.. rebuttal anyone!

According to the official accounts -- as of 2:30 New York Time, May 6, 2008 ??? 22, 464 people died and 41, 054 people are missing.

Why is the death toll so high? The storm water surged over 12 feet. The houses in the delta region of my country are used to flooding and are constructed to cope with, say, 5-6 feet but not 12 feet. The bamboo and wooden houses can cope with 120 mile per hour wind, certainly NOT.

So, why is the death toll so high for such a cyclone?

Because the storm fell on the most densely populated regions of the country. Approximately 12 million people live in the two regions hit hardest, namely Yangon and Irrawaddy provinces.

The tropical storms called cyclones in Bay of Bengal usually had gone into Bangladesh. Even if the storms head towards Burma/Myanmar, they usually head toward a range of mountains in the West, which had given us a natural shelter. The storm of this direction and this magnitude is very rare. Its land fall was on the Southwestern flat land and was heading towards East. We didn???t expect such direction.

Most importantly, we don???t follow the weather news partly because the weather had never been severe and bad enough for us to follow and partly because the weather forecasts had never been reliably accurate (at least in our perception and memory). The weather forecasts say that it is going to rain today and it is sunny the entire day. The forecast says that it is going to be sunny today and we get a downpour. So, we don???t follow the weather forecast and take them seriously.

The storm warnings were issued by government-controlled radios, televisions and newspaper. Of course, the weathermen, like most Burmese, might have thought that it was going to be another tropical storm that would move towards Bangladesh or the Arakhan Range of Mountains. Then, it will subside later. This time we were wrong and our mistake is fatal.

Even if the storm victims had received the weather forecasts and taken it more seriously, they would have no place to hide. The bamboo houses they live are too weak to weather the 120-mph wind and 12-feet-high storm water. According to an eye witness, some people went to the monasteries, usually built in wood and concrete, but it didn???t help. The walls of the monastic building they took shelter collapsed onto them and they died.

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Posted By: oklahoma_republican_youth @ 05/12/2008 5:06:22 PM

ok.. in my opinion it doesnt matter where they thought it was going to hit..... they knew its potential.. they should of informed EVERYONE IN THAT COUNTRY AS WELL AS SURROUNDING ONES.. computers are man made.. they make mistakes.. and last time i checked we cant control nature.. so we can never be 100% sure that it will hit there or here.. look at New Orleans.. they underestimated the hurricane.. and the damage was outraging... i think the government in that country should be exiled.. and perhaps disappear... .they are going to go to a very hot place when they die.. and refusing aid into the country to help those who cant help themselves is ridiculous.... they know they wont die from the diseases and conditions like the "average citizen" but if the shoe was on the other foot they would be asking why their leaders werent suppling aid!!! ok so thats one of America's youths opinion.. rebuttal anyone!
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Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/11/2008 12:43:20 AM

You can verify whether the public was informed or not by reading the newspaper in English available at mrtv3 dot net dot mm
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Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/09/2008 5:35:36 PM

According to the official accounts -- as of 2:30 New York Time, May 6, 2008 ??? 22, 464 people died and 41, 054 people are missing.

Why is the death toll so high? The storm water surged over 12 feet. The houses in the delta region of my country are used to flooding and are constructed to cope with, say, 5-6 feet but not 12 feet. The bamboo and wooden houses can cope with 120 mile per hour wind, certainly NOT.

So, why is the death toll so high for such a cyclone?

Because the storm fell on the most densely populated regions of the country. Approximately 12 million people live in the two regions hit hardest, namely Yangon and Irrawaddy provinces.

The tropical storms called cyclones in Bay of Bengal usually had gone into Bangladesh. Even if the storms head towards Burma/Myanmar, they usually head toward a range of mountains in the West, which had given us a natural shelter. The storm of this direction and this magnitude is very rare. Its land fall was on the Southwestern flat land and was heading towards East. We didn???t expect such direction.

Most importantly, we don???t follow the weather news partly because the weather had never been severe and bad enough for us to follow and partly because the weather forecasts had never been reliably accurate (at least in our perception and memory). The weather forecasts say that it is going to rain today and it is sunny the entire day. The forecast says that it is going to be sunny today and we get a downpour. So, we don???t follow the weather forecast and take them seriously.

The storm warnings were issued by government-controlled radios, televisions and newspaper. Of course, the weathermen, like most Burmese, might have thought that it was going to be another tropical storm that would move towards Bangladesh or the Arakhan Range of Mountains. Then, it will subside later. This time we were wrong and our mistake is fatal.

Even if the storm victims had received the weather forecasts and taken it more seriously, they would have no place to hide. The bamboo houses they live are too weak to weather the 120-mph wind and 12-feet-high storm water. According to an eye witness, some people went to the monasteries, usually built in wood and concrete, but it didn???t help. The walls of the monastic building they took shelter collapsed onto them and they died.