Deadly Forecast
How does this cyclone stand with any weather trends in the Indian Ocean that you've been able to track?
There is some evidence that there's an increase in global tropical activity, but it's just so anecdotal right now. There is definitely a scientific correlation between warmer than average sea surface temperatures, lack of winds at high levels, and increased hurricane or typhoon activity. We do know that exists. But to what extent that had an effect on this event, I don't think there's any strong scientific correlation, not in that part of the world. As much of a tragedy as this is, it is extremely anecdotal. There's no correlation between this particular storm and a global or climate change that's in effect. There's just not enough scientific data to support that.
Should there have been lessons learned from the tsunami on this that would have helped? Have things changed at all since then?
I would have to go back to high level and the early-warning systems, and how the public is being protected by their government agencies with regard to life and property. With the National Weather Service here in the United States, that is their sole mission, that is the sole reason they exist—the protection of life and property. One must question the effectiveness of those governments to be able to protect life and property, and the early-warning system is part of that, the technology and infrastructure for disseminating news and information like this. Clearly, this was not enough.
© 2008
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Member Comments
Posted By: oklahoma_republican_youth @ 05/12/2008 5:06:22 PM
Comment: ok.. in my opinion it doesnt matter where they thought it was going to hit..... they knew its potential.. they should of informed EVERYONE IN THAT COUNTRY AS WELL AS SURROUNDING ONES.. computers are man made.. they make mistakes.. and last time i checked we cant control nature.. so we can never be 100% sure that it will hit there or here.. look at New Orleans.. they underestimated the hurricane.. and the damage was outraging... i think the government in that country should be exiled.. and perhaps disappear... .they are going to go to a very hot place when they die.. and refusing aid into the country to help those who cant help themselves is ridiculous.... they know they wont die from the diseases and conditions like the "average citizen" but if the shoe was on the other foot they would be asking why their leaders werent suppling aid!!! ok so thats one of America's youths opinion.. rebuttal anyone!
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/11/2008 12:43:20 AM
Comment: You can verify whether the public was informed or not by reading the newspaper in English available at mrtv3 dot net dot mm
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/09/2008 5:35:36 PM
Comment: According to the official accounts -- as of 2:30 New York Time, May 6, 2008 ??? 22, 464 people died and 41, 054 people are missing.
Why is the death toll so high? The storm water surged over 12 feet. The houses in the delta region of my country are used to flooding and are constructed to cope with, say, 5-6 feet but not 12 feet. The bamboo and wooden houses can cope with 120 mile per hour wind, certainly NOT.
So, why is the death toll so high for such a cyclone?
Because the storm fell on the most densely populated regions of the country. Approximately 12 million people live in the two regions hit hardest, namely Yangon and Irrawaddy provinces.
The tropical storms called cyclones in Bay of Bengal usually had gone into Bangladesh. Even if the storms head towards Burma/Myanmar, they usually head toward a range of mountains in the West, which had given us a natural shelter. The storm of this direction and this magnitude is very rare. Its land fall was on the Southwestern flat land and was heading towards East. We didn???t expect such direction.
Most importantly, we don???t follow the weather news partly because the weather had never been severe and bad enough for us to follow and partly because the weather forecasts had never been reliably accurate (at least in our perception and memory). The weather forecasts say that it is going to rain today and it is sunny the entire day. The forecast says that it is going to be sunny today and we get a downpour. So, we don???t follow the weather forecast and take them seriously.
The storm warnings were issued by government-controlled radios, televisions and newspaper. Of course, the weathermen, like most Burmese, might have thought that it was going to be another tropical storm that would move towards Bangladesh or the Arakhan Range of Mountains. Then, it will subside later. This time we were wrong and our mistake is fatal.
Even if the storm victims had received the weather forecasts and taken it more seriously, they would have no place to hide. The bamboo houses they live are too weak to weather the 120-mph wind and 12-feet-high storm water. According to an eye witness, some people went to the monasteries, usually built in wood and concrete, but it didn???t help. The walls of the monastic building they took shelter collapsed onto them and they died.