It’s the Agronomy, Stupid

From diplomats to disaster-relief workers to diehard free traders, almost everyone has weighed in on the international food crisis. Not surprisingly, opinions on how the current problems came about, and prescriptions for what to do about them, have varied widely. But one influential group of experts has kept a relatively low profile: biotech companies. Yet whether it's creating high-tech plants through gene splicing or concocting a better fertilizer, cutting-edge agricultural science is certain to be part of the survival kit for an ever-hungrier world. One of the biggest innovators in the business is Syngenta, the Swiss-based seed and agricultural products company. The company's CEO, Mike Mack, recently spoke with NEWSWEEK's Mac Margolis about the causes and myths of the food crisis, and what his company is doing about it.

NEWSWEEK: Is the world running out of food?
Mike Mack: I get the sense that there's bit more calm coming into the debate now. Some of what caused the initial panic was the disruption of the trade of key grains on world markets, which created a domino effect. That seems to be changing. Now the former Soviet states have resumed exports. So has Thailand. The prices of some of the big grains have retreated somewhat. The danger is when [countries] shut off their markets. When people shut off their borders, it creates a disincentive to growers and people have to guess a bit about demand.

But food costs are rising. Is widespread hunger still a threat? Aren't the harvests of staple crops at risk?
There's absolutely no data to suggest that famine is near or that a collapse in grain harvests is likely. Of the five major grains in the world, corn and soybeans are used for feed and oils, not for food. The big food crops are wheat and rice, but rice is not really an international grain. Only about 5 percent of what's consumed every year is traded globally. The one big grain traded around the world is wheat, and inventories are somewhat lower than they have been in recent years. But the regions that tend to be persistently hungry, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, are almost totally unaffected because they don't participate in the global grain trade. The difference is that the cost of food-aid programs has skyrocketed. And remember that the price of grain is only part of the total cost of food. Prices have risen with the fall of the dollar and the rising cost of oil, which has a direct impact on the price of fertilizers.

What role can genetically modified food crops play in solving the current crisis and increasing food supply? 
Genetically modified crops will help. We are not looking at a factor-fold increase in yield for given crops. Planting glyphosate-tolerant seeds [engineered to withstand herbicide] for crops such as cotton, soybeans, corn, canola and sugar beet makes it easy for farmers by lowering their costs and allowing for more efficient weed control. For other crops, such as bt [pesticide-tolerant] corn, yield will rise but only in regions vulnerable to specific pests and problems. Most farmers need to know how to make the best use of the tools that are already available through conventional agriculture, such as efficient irrigation and taking better care of soils. Without this, there's no use in talking about the Green Revolution 2.0 when they're still waiting for the Green Revolution 1.0.

What's in store for the next generation of agricultural biotech? Are you preparing the farm for climate change?
The big biotech companies like Monsanto, Dupont and Syngenta are all working on drought-tolerant technology. It's one of the most promising things in our pipeline. We are working on corn that will continue to produce substantial yields even under water stress. Our first products [in this line] will be available by 2011. The fact is that most of the world's main crops will be hit not only by intermittent drought but will be planted on marginally productive land. Drought-tolerant technology can bring this marginal land into production.

Does conventional technology, which doesn't rely on genetic modification, also have a place on the farm of the future?
Absolutely. One of our most promising innovations, Invinsa, is a sprayable formulation that represses the manufacture of ethylene, a compound which essentially tells plants to shutdown during times of extended heat and drought. By blocking ethylene, we can ease water stress and enhance photosynthesis of plants. We have a huge amount of enthusiasm in this project and see a potential market of a half a billion dollars. We also have  successfully tropicalized the sugar beet, which is typically a temperate climate crop, to produce sugar and ethanol. This is the result of more than 10 years of mutagenesis, or crossbreeding hybrids to find mutations, to come up with a variety that performs exceptionally well in warm weather.