War is the Answer

International pressure is also mounting on Colombo to end the offensive and return to the table. U.S. economic aid to Sri Lanka has been curtailed over concern for human-rights violations in the war, and the EU may soon follow suit.

Achieving victory is still possible, analysts say. "If somehow [the government] can kill Prabhakaran, that would change the picture dramatically," says one senior analyst for a Western NGO in Colombo. Barring that, if the Army can deliver a few significant victories before January, it may buy Rajapaksa enough good will among the Sinhalese to allow him to continue the fight. For that reason, security experts expect another major push before the rainy season begins in June.

But the best chance for peace, analysts agree, involves combining the military campaign with a political strategy to empower moderate Tamil politicians and deprive the LTTE of support. Most Tamils on the island oppose the Tigers' calls for independence, though they do want more autonomy. Under a 1987 accord brokered by India, Sri Lanka passed a constitutional amendment that was supposed to transfer some powers to the provinces. But the Tigers refused to disarm as called for under the accord, and the amendment was never implemented in Tamil areas.

Rajapaksa has promised to correct this, but many doubt his sincerity. In the country's ethnically and religiously mixed east, which held provincial elections last week, the president's party has joined forces with the political wing of Karuna's former LTTE faction, which is unpopular with many mainstream Tamil groups. Many suspect Rajapaksa hopes to set up Karuna's party as a puppet regime in the Eastern Province, allowing Colombo to claim credit for devolving power while retaining full practical control.

C. R. Jayasinghe, the Sri Lankan ambassador to India, says that the government will abide by the provincial poll results and fully implement the constitutional amendment. Without a more serious effort to redress discrimination, however, many international commentators believe the military campaign can't succeed. The fighting alone "cannot be the whole solution, because that alone won't address the grievances of the minority community," says Susan Hayward of the United States Institute of Peace in Washington. Unfortunately, Rajapaksa, who is surrounded by Sinhalese hardliners, has shown little interest in truly reaching out to the Tamils. Which means that while there may well be a military solution to Sri Lanka's civil war, it probably isn't this one.

© 2008