Winds of Change
Cyclone Nargis may have done more than just wreck Burma's cities. It may also spell doom for the government.
The massive storm that hit Burma on May 2 could not have come at a worse time for the generals who rule the country. As Cyclone Nargis raged toward them across the Indian Ocean, Burma's military government was busy preparing for a referendum—originally scheduled for May 10—they hoped would ratify a new constitution legalizing military rule.
In fact, the generals were so preoccupied with making sure their new charter would pass smoothly that they played down urgent warnings from India and others of the impending cyclone, according to foreign wire reports. That delay would prove fatal to legions of their subjects who were caught unawares. Now,
with roughly 17,330 square kilometers of Burma underwater and tens of thousands confirmed dead, the generals have reluctantly agreed to postpone balloting in two of the worst-hit provinces—but, incredibly, have insisted it will go as planned in the country's north.
Yet even if the vote passes, the ruthless soldiers who have ruled this Asian state since 1962 may have made their final blunder—or at least started a process that will lead to their eventual downfall. From Mexico City to Managua to the Middle Kingdom, natural disasters in the past have had a way of undermining ruthless and incompetent leaders. The process can take years. But once set in motion, the forces unleashed by a destructive natural event—and a ham-handed government response—can prove as unstoppable as an actual tsunami.
Just how badly Burma has suffered is still hard to determine, since the xenophobic and paranoid regime has accepted only a trickle of international aid and denied visas to virtually all foreign journalists. But the official count of the dead and missing already exceeded 60,000 as of this writing and was expected to grow. More than 1 million Burmese have lost their homes, and Shari Villarosa, the top U.S. diplomat in the country, warned last week that the lack of food, medicine, clean water and other basic needs could bring the death toll to 100,000. World Food Program spokesperson Paul Risley said the victims' needs were so vast that they've been "like trying to fill a bathtub with an eyedropper."
Meanwhile, the government seems to have gone missing in action. The 400,000-strong military kept an unusually low profile last week, suggesting serious dysfunction at the top. Sr. Gen. Tan Shwe, the nation's leader, was nowhere to be seen. Buddhist monks and nuns appeared to be spearheading community clean-up campaigns—although state censors instructed the media to report only on military relief efforts. But some troops seemed more concerned with social control than social welfare. Instead of helping emergency services, for example, some soldiers conducted surveillance of local NGO staffers who were offering free funeral services to the bereaved families, according to Aung Zaw, a Burmese exile and editor of The Irrawaddy, a Thai-based magazine about Burma.
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Member Comments
Posted By: lws @ 05/12/2008 10:15:16 PM
Comment: All these posts really miss the point : Myanmar will remain as is where is & all the pro west actors will be kept out of power as long as China & the Chinese people will resolutely not allow its important ally & strategic neighbour to fall under western influence. All positive changes shall be prodded & effected gradually & safely evolved within the existing system. So, lay off your bloody hands, you bastard western media & activists!
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/12/2008 4:07:49 PM
Comment: Part II: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do
Now that the referendum is over, would the Burmese military government accept the international relief workers? More likely than before, but one more thing to go.
What do the regime opponents plan to do with the presence of international aid workers (and possibly media) in Burma? The regime opponents know that the draft constitution will be ratified because it is the only way out of the ongoing political gridlock and the public is going to vote for it so that they can move forward. If the regime opponents plan to take advantage of the presence of international aid workers, thinking that the Burmese military government would NOT dare to disperse the protestors as it did last year and in 1988, or that if it did, it is going to face the enormous global outrage and UN Security Council???s punitive resolution and pressure, then what would the Burmese military leaders do?
Of course, in the name of reason of the state and Hobbesian dilemma, they are going to order the army and police to disperse the protestors and to shoot if judged necessary. Legally, they can do so because the emergency law is imposed for a natural disaster and legitimately because the U.S National Guards and Police did shoot some people dead in New Orleans after Katrina. The Burmese military leaders are going to and have to take a decisive action, whatever it means, even if the international aid workers are there and if they have to face later the global condemnation and UN Security Council???s punitive resolution, falling into the trap of their opponents??? infamous but unpragmatic strategy of regime change by UN Security Council???s resolutions.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/12/2008 3:52:31 PM
Comment: Part I: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do
Some might want to point out that the Burmese military government should accept the international aid workers even if it does NOT accept the U.S warships and military aircrafts. Since the referendum is over on Saturday, it is more likely to invite the international aid workers now than before. But we need to know the background a little bit and reason to see if we can find a workable solution.
The constitutional referendum was scheduled yesterday on May 10. The Burmese military government wants the draft constitution ratified. Its opponents want the draft rejected (if possible, the referendum disrupted). U.S, France and Western countries support the regime opponents. U.S House of Representatives went so far as taking jurisdiction over the draft constitution of another country and passing a concurrent resolution (H. Con. Res. 317), calling the Bush Administration and UN to reject the referendum (process) and draft constitution (outcome).
The regime???s possible concern was that the opponents of Burmese military regime covertly might plan to start the protests on the day of referendum and disrupt it (Saturday May 10), capitalizing and politicizing the sufferings of the cyclone victims. Melinda Liu assesses in Newsweek that ???Cyclone Nargis may have done more than just wreck Burma's cities. It may also spell doom for the government.??? (Winds of Change: May 19, 2008 Issue) In fact, the regime opponents took their first step by spreading the news that the public is angry at the military government and maligning the military government by accusing it of slow response even last Saturday morning before anybody including the government found out the extent of the cyclone impact. (You will need to know the Burmese language to verify this. I am referring to the criticism of a leading, regime-opposition, lobbyist from Washington D.C in a radio program in Burmese language last Saturday). The presence of U. S and France military in the Burmese territory if possible and (already) in the neighboring countries would encourage the regime opponents and discourage the regime.