Cyclone Nargis may have done more than just wreck Burma's cities. It may also spell doom for the government.
Comment: All these posts really miss the point : Myanmar will remain as is where is & all the pro west actors will be kept out of power as long as China & the Chinese people will resolutely not allow its important ally & strategic neighbour to fall under western influence. All positive changes shall be prodded & effected gradually & safely evolved within the existing system. So, lay off your bloody hands, you bastard western media & activists!
Comment: Part II: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do
Now that the referendum is over, would the Burmese military government accept the international relief workers? More likely than before, but one more thing to go.
What do the regime opponents plan to do with the presence of international aid workers (and possibly media) in Burma? The regime opponents know that the draft constitution will be ratified because it is the only way out of the ongoing political gridlock and the public is going to vote for it so that they can move forward. If the regime opponents plan to take advantage of the presence of international aid workers, thinking that the Burmese military government would NOT dare to disperse the protestors as it did last year and in 1988, or that if it did, it is going to face the enormous global outrage and UN Security Council???s punitive resolution and pressure, then what would the Burmese military leaders do?
Of course, in the name of reason of the state and Hobbesian dilemma, they are going to order the army and police to disperse the protestors and to shoot if judged necessary. Legally, they can do so because the emergency law is imposed for a natural disaster and legitimately because the U.S National Guards and Police did shoot some people dead in New Orleans after Katrina. The Burmese military leaders are going to and have to take a decisive action, whatever it means, even if the international aid workers are there and if they have to face later the global condemnation and UN Security Council???s punitive resolution, falling into the trap of their opponents??? infamous but unpragmatic strategy of regime change by UN Security Council???s resolutions.
Comment: Part I: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do
Some might want to point out that the Burmese military government should accept the international aid workers even if it does NOT accept the U.S warships and military aircrafts. Since the referendum is over on Saturday, it is more likely to invite the international aid workers now than before. But we need to know the background a little bit and reason to see if we can find a workable solution.
The constitutional referendum was scheduled yesterday on May 10. The Burmese military government wants the draft constitution ratified. Its opponents want the draft rejected (if possible, the referendum disrupted). U.S, France and Western countries support the regime opponents. U.S House of Representatives went so far as taking jurisdiction over the draft constitution of another country and passing a concurrent resolution (H. Con. Res. 317), calling the Bush Administration and UN to reject the referendum (process) and draft constitution (outcome).
The regime???s possible concern was that the opponents of Burmese military regime covertly might plan to start the protests on the day of referendum and disrupt it (Saturday May 10), capitalizing and politicizing the sufferings of the cyclone victims. Melinda Liu assesses in Newsweek that ???Cyclone Nargis may have done more than just wreck Burma's cities. It may also spell doom for the government.??? (Winds of Change: May 19, 2008 Issue) In fact, the regime opponents took their first step by spreading the news that the public is angry at the military government and maligning the military government by accusing it of slow response even last Saturday morning before anybody including the government found out the extent of the cyclone impact. (You will need to know the Burmese language to verify this. I am referring to the criticism of a leading, regime-opposition, lobbyist from Washington D.C in a radio program in Burmese language last Saturday). The presence of U. S and France military in the Burmese territory if possible and (already) in the neighboring countries would encourage the regime opponents and discourage the regime.
Comment: All the ingredients of a regime change are there. Notably, as Melinda Liu pointed out that the last missing spice, cyclone Nargis, is also now available. What is now needed is the final push, which should come in as a form of coercive humanitarian assistance, in the wake of the Burmese junta's two step backward, one step forward strategy. Let us just hope, the junta will continue to run its course as usual.
Comment: All the ingredients of a regime change are there. Notably, as Melinda Liu pointed out that the last missing spice, cyclone Nargis, is also now available. What is now needed is the final push, which should come in as a form of coercive humanitarian assistance, in the wake of the Burmese junta's two step backward, one step forward strategy. Let us just hope, the junta will continue to run its course as usual. Khurtaikornkhaw
Comment: Hopefully there will be some good coming out this disaster. The junta should be prosecuted under "Crimes to Humanity" just as Liberia's Johnson. There should be a concerted effort by western forces to see this happen-notwithstanding China IDIOTIC support. Force should be used if necessary. Yes an invasion should be discussedf. I have feeling once the average Burmese soldier sees British, French and USA military confront them they will lay down their arms happily. I doubt they like the JUNTA either. It is just a way to survive in BURMA-become a soldier.
Comment: So all you can give us as "examples" happened two to three decades ago! It is NEWSWEEK that beieves in superstition. Goverment of Myammer may not be the one that NEWKWEEK favors, but it is far better than Aung San Suu Kyi, who is a puppet of CIA and UK .
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