Myanmar bloggers help build 'Budget Huts' in delta

Myanmar bloggers help cyclone survivors with 'Budget Huts'

Jun 17, 2008

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Posted By: Suray B. Prasai @ 05/27/2008 12:26:22 PM

Comment: It is quite late for rescue and aid workers to do much after a two week lapse, after which the Myanmar government has allowed assistance to trickle in. Earlier when Mrs. Laura Bush had critiicized the Myanamar junta's efforts, she had also mentioned that the US was ready to assist with a bulwark of American humanitarian aid if a ground assesment of the cyclone victims' needs were allowed. it is high time coordinated international action take place to free Aung San Suu Kyi from her five year odl confinement, yet help in delivering much needed relief aid, so that the Burma can open itself upto to democracy and human rights as well.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/23/2008 11:46:24 AM

Comment: In case of another attempt at people???s power revolution from the part of regime opponents, politicizing the disaster and capitalizing the presence of foreign troops in the vicinity, that of international aid workers and the unusual attention of international media, the Burmese military government will immediately attempt, euphemistically speaking, to maintain law and order; they might succeed in so doing. The Burmese military government might also wait for a few days and may restore law and order only later as last year in Burma or as in Tibet. Even its earlier, less decisive, attempts might FAIL. The 2nd and 3rd scenarios would inevitably result in the withdrawal of its troops from some areas, as in 1988 in Burma, leaving the population (and the Asian aid workers) to face the Hobbesian dilemma to choose between the anarchy and Leviathan state. In anticipation of the 2ndand 3rd scenarios, the international aid workers are advised to seek accommodation in the high-rise hotels where the helicopter rescues are possible. Yes, it will cost forty or fifty dollars more than the small, family-run, motels which cost ten or twenty dollars per night. In order to be able to rescue the international aid workers out there in the field immediately, it is necessary for them to instantaneously update their location to the local authorities or even higher authorities, including the relevant ministries.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 9:59:13 PM

Comment: Part II: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do

Now that the referendum is over, would the Burmese military government accept the international relief workers? More likely than before, but one more thing to go.

What do the regime opponents plan to do with the presence of international aid workers (and possibly media) in Burma? The regime opponents know that the draft constitution will be ratified because it is the only way out of the ongoing political gridlock and the public is going to vote for it so that they can move forward. If the regime opponents plan to take advantage of the presence of international aid workers, thinking that the Burmese military government would NOT dare to disperse the protestors as it did last year and in 1988, or that if it did, it is going to face the enormous global outrage and UN Security Council???s punitive resolution and pressure, then what would the Burmese military leaders do?

Of course, in the name of reason of the state and Hobbesian dilemma, they are going to order the army and police to disperse the protestors and to shoot if judged necessary. Legally, they can do so because the emergency law is imposed for a natural disaster and legitimately because the U.S National Guards and Police did shoot some people dead in New Orleans after Katrina. The Burmese military leaders are going to and have to take a decisive action, whatever it means, even if the international aid workers are there and if they have to face later the global condemnation and UN Security Council???s punitive resolution, falling into the trap of their opponents??? infamous but unpragmatic strategy of regime change by UN Security Council???s resolutions.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 9:58:13 PM

Comment: Some might want to point out that the Burmese military government should accept the international aid workers even if it does NOT accept the U.S warships and military aircrafts. Since the referendum is over on Saturday, it is more likely to invite the international aid workers now than before. But we need to know the background a little bit and reason to see if we can find a workable solution.

The constitutional referendum was scheduled yesterday on May 10. The Burmese military government wants the draft constitution ratified. Its opponents want the draft rejected (if possible, the referendum disrupted). U.S, France and Western countries support the regime opponents. U.S House of Representatives went so far as taking jurisdiction over the draft constitution of another country and passing a concurrent resolution (H. Con. Res. 317), calling the Bush Administration and UN to reject the referendum (process) and draft constitution (outcome).

The regime???s possible concern was that the opponents of Burmese military regime covertly might plan to start the protests on the day of referendum and disrupt it (Saturday May 10), capitalizing and politicizing the sufferings of the cyclone victims. In fact, the regime opponents took their first step by spreading the news that the public is angry at the military government and maligning the military government by accusing it of slow response even last Saturday morning before anybody including the government found out the extent of the cyclone impact. (You will need to know the Burmese language to verify this. I am referring to the criticism of a leading, regime-opposition, lobbyist from Washington D.C in a radio program in Burmese language last Saturday). The presence of U. S and France military in the Burmese territory if possible and (already) in the neighboring countries would encourage the regime opponents and discourage the regime.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 9:43:03 PM

Comment: Part I: Terrain is Quite Clear but One More Thing to Do

Some might want to point out that the Burmese military government should accept the international aid workers even if it does NOT accept the U.S warships and military aircrafts. Since the referendum is over on Saturday, it is more likely to invite the international aid workers now than before. But we need to know the background a little bit and reason to see if we can find a workable solution.

The constitutional referendum was scheduled yesterday on May 10. The Burmese military government wants the draft constitution ratified. Its opponents want the draft rejected (if possible, the referendum disrupted). U.S, France and Western countries support the regime opponents. U.S House of Representatives went so far as taking jurisdiction over the draft constitution of another country and passing a concurrent resolution (H. Con. Res. 317), calling the Bush Administration and UN to reject the referendum (process) and draft constitution (outcome).

The regime???s possible concern was that the opponents of Burmese military regime covertly might plan to start the protests on the day of referendum and disrupt it (Saturday May 10), capitalizing and politicizing the sufferings of the cyclone victims. In fact, the regime opponents took their first step by spreading the news that the public is angry at the military government and maligning the military government by accusing it of slow response even last Saturday morning before anybody including the government found out the extent of the cyclone impact. (You will need to know the Burmese language to verify this. I am referring to the criticism of a leading, regime-opposition, lobbyist from Washington D.C in a radio program in Burmese language last Saturday). The presence of U. S and France military in the Burmese territory if possible and (already) in the neighboring countries would encourage the regime opponents and discourage the regime.

Now that the referendum is over, would the Burmese military government accept the international relief workers? More likely than before, but one more thing to go.

What do the regime opponents plan to do with the presence of international aid workers (and possibly media) in Burma? The regime opponents know that the draft constitution will be ratified because it is the only way out of the ongoing political gridlock and the public is going to vote for it so that they can move forward. If the regime opponents plan to take advantage of the presence of international aid workers, thinking that the Burmese military government would NOT dare to disperse the protestors as it did last year and in 1988, or that if it did, it is going to face the enormous global outrage and UN Security Council???s punitive resolution and pressure, then what would the Burmese military leaders do?
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 9:01:40 PM

Comment: The Burmese generals are sending massive number of troops into the storm-hit regions. They already sent two army divisions (66th and 77th Light Infantry Divisions), numbering somewhere between 5,000 and 15,000 soldiers. The two territorial commands, one army division (11th LID) and several tactical commands already stationed in the region are mobilized for the relief efforts. The navy is already mobilized; its chief of staff is in the region. A large chunk of helicopters in the Burmese Air Forces are transporting relief materials into the areas inaccessible by boats and roads. Its chief of staff is back and forth from one region to another.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 8:00:57 PM

Comment: The ratification of the draft constitution with 80 to 90 percent, you got this figure form an AP report. The AP reporter from Burma makes the conclusion that the draft constitution is going to be ratified with 80 or 90 percent approval votes in Burma???s referendum simply by asking twenty people in a polling station. Yes, the draft constitution will be ratified but I doubt with 80 or 90 percent approval unless those leaning towards the regime opponents voted, despite their words, in favor of the draft constitution. Most likely, the draft constitution will be ratified with 65 percent yes votes. NLD, (Daw) Aung San Suu Kyi???s party and Burma???s main opposition party, won over 80 percent of seats in single-member districts with 60 percent of votes approximately. NLD lost a lot of public support because it brought neither democracy nor political solution; Burmese people are also anger at the regime opponents for the sanctions and embargos they called for from the Western governments. But I seriously doubt that NLD has lost every public support altogether like the Burmese military regime claims. I think NLD still enjoy support from 25 to 35 percent of the Burmese population. On the other hand, the Burmese military regime started out with very low public support in the late 1980???s and early 1990???s, closer to zero. But it gradually gained some public support over the years partly because its policies of semi-open market economy allowed the population, particularly the farmers, to make some wealth, OF COURSE, more than the previous one-party state, socialist, government with state-controlled, centrally-managed economy. The Burmese military regime gradually gained some public support over the years partly because its concentrated investment in the infrastructure made visible improvements. Even then, my guess is that somewhere between 25 and 35 percent of population has favorable opinion of the Burmese military regime. The rest of the population, approximately one third, supports neither the Burmese military government nor its opponents. It is their votes that will make the final decisions. It is their votes that I count on to say that the draft constitution will be ratified with 65 percent yes votes. Right or wrong, we will find out within one month.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 7:07:04 PM

Comment: The Burmese generals are sending massive number of troops into the storm-hit regions. They already sent two army divisions, numbering somewhere between 5,000 and 15,000 soldiers. The two territorial commands, one army division and several tactical commands already stationed in the region are mobilized for the relief efforts. The navy is already mobilized; its chief of staff is in the region. A large chunk of helicopters in the Burmese Air Forces are transporting relief materials into the areas inaccessible by boats and roads. Its chief of staff is back and forth from one region to another.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 5:52:04 PM

Comment: On the other hand, given that the regime opponents are mean and wicked, you shouldn???t jump to the conclusion that the Burmese military government must be clean and fair with the referendum outcome. It didn???t say anything about what it would do if the draft constitution is rejected in the referendum. That the Burmese military government is holding its cards very closely to its chest essentially means that it could start the process of drafting the constitution from the beginning AGAIN. (The process which produced the current draft took 14 years. That is one of the reasons why many would prefer to have the draft constitution ratified and to exit out of the ongoing political gridlock in Burma rather than having it rejected.) It could also claim, as a panelist points out ???in reality, if not in principle??? in BBC Burmese Live Forum (time is 36:19 to 38:35) that the Burmese people, who has been governed by the military for the past twenty years, would rather live under the military government than the military-influenced but constitutional government. (The means and modes forcing the Burmese military government to relinquish power in case of non-ratification is very limited, that including the regime change by people???s power revolution and by UN Security Council resolutions. That is one of the reasons why many would prefer to have the draft constitution ratified and to exit out of the ongoing political gridlock in Burma rather than having it rejected.)

I hope that the imperfect draft constitution will be ratified in the referendum by the majority of votes and Burma can exit out of the ongoing political gridlock soon and that the regime opponents, their state/non-state supporters and the sympathetic international media would realistically weight in the pros and cons of their actions/decisions/reports/opinions/editorials before they make some.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 5:44:18 PM

Comment: In a Live Discussion Forum in BBC Burmese Evening Program, Saturday May 10, 2008, Mr. Nyan Win, the Spokesperson for National League for Democracy (NLD) has been saying (time is 23:02 to 23:20) that the constitutional referendum is not free and fair, citing a number of irregularities in some polling stations of 30 townships [out of a few hundred townships]. (NLD is the leading organization of regime opponents and (Daw) Aung San Suu Kyi???s party.)

When asked by someone in the audience (time is 26:18 to 28:24) what NLD would do if the draft constitution is ratified, Mr. Nyan Win answered that, if ratified in the referendum, we (NLD and people) are not going to accept its outcome since the referendum is not free and fair.

A few moments later, Mr. Nyan Win was again asked (time is 33:43 to 36:04) by someone in the audience about what NLD would do if the draft constitution were rejected. Carefully evading the question without a straightforward answer, Mr. Nyan Win states that NLD would work further in consultation with the public, implying that, if the draft constitution were rejected, he would accept the outcome as legitimate.

If the draft constitution is rejected, the referendum is free and fair. If the draft constitution is ratified, the referendum is NOT free and fair. That is how the regime opponents, their state/non-state supporters and the sympathetic media would assess the referendum.
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 5:10:24 PM

Comment: In ideal world, the Burmese people might have voted NO overwhelmingly. But in the real world they live in, the Burmese people are going to vote YES. The draft constitution will be approved with 65% yes-votes approximately.

The Burmese people are NOT going to vote against the draft constitution NOT because they don???t normally respect (Daw) Aung San Suu Kyi BUT because she and her followers cannot bring a change in political climate. The paths to democracy the regime opponents put forward ??? regime change by people???s power revolution, regime change by UN Security Council???s binding and punitive resolutions ??? are high cost, high risk though possibly high return.

The Burmese people are going to vote YES and approve the draft constitution NOT because it is perfect and democratic BUT because it can bring a change in political climate with the low cost, low risk and medium returns. Not a lot of people are going to die like in the attempts at people???s power revolution. The chance is very good for a return to a civilian government with military taking 25% of seats in parliament and maintaining the defense-security-related matters. Yes, the democratic returns of the regime-initiated transition by means of approving the draft constitution won???t be as great as those by regime-defeated transition like in the People???s Power Revolution in the Philippines. But they will choose to vote for the draft constitution and make a low-cost, low-risk investment with medium returns rather than to vote against the draft constitution and make a high-cost, high-risk, investment with people???s power revolution or regime change by Security Council resolutions.

At least, that is what I think they will and should do. What they will actually choose, we will find out in one month.

As for the free and fairness of the referendum, one should remember 1990 elections? Before the elections were held, the regime opponents and their state/non-state supporters and sympathetic media called the 1990 elections as unfree and unfair. (Please read your own newspapers and media again) After the elections were held and when the regime opponents won, the regime opponents and their state/non-state supporters and sympathetic media called the 1990 elections FREE and FAIR.

So, their judgment on the free and fairness of 1990 elections (and thus the ongoing constitutional referendum) will depend on the outcomes whether their sympathizers win or lose.

On the other hand, the regime opponents and their state/non-state supporters and sympathetic media might not have a chance to make their embarrassing spin in this referendum. Good for them, isn???t it?
Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 5:08:26 PM

Comment: Why doesn???t the Burmese government ??? or the Referendum Commission in particular ??? want to postpone the referendum in the entire country?

One possible reason is that the Cyclone hit very badly only in several regions of the country and the referendum could go on as scheduled in the rest of the country. If a hurricane, May GOD forbid, hit the NY-NJ-PA tri-state area a few days earlier, would US postpone its presidential elections scheduled on Nov 4, 2008?

Even in the five regions declared as natural disaster zone, approximately 47 townships were ravaged. So, the referendum could be held as scheduled in the rest of the country. The latest news is that the government postponed the referendum in the severely-hit areas, 40 out of 45 townships in Yangon province and 7 in Irrawaddy.

If the referendum is held on May 10 as scheduled in the country except the 47 most-severely-hit townships, the government ??? less concerned about another attempt at people???s power revolution in the presence of international aid workers ??? might be able to allow more international aid teams into the country, especially for the longer-term reconstruction and rebuilding.

The international teams wouldn???t ??? and shouldn???t plan to ???stay on in Burma for the next two or three years until after the general elections scheduled in 2010.

The usual scenario of the aftermath of natural disasters is that the soldiers ??? usually national guards in U.S ??? marched into the disaster hit areas, cleaned up the mess, do the difficult tasks and embraced the people???s favor. I believe that the Burmese soldiers did so and should also regain its people???s favor.

However, the oversea Burmese Opposition is getting one step ahead and maligning the Burmese military, wrongly alleging in the Burmese-language radio programs that the military fail to adequately respond the natural disaster of such magnitude; that they don???t see soldiers in the streets although there were soldiers cleaning up the main roads (think snow routes) essential for resuming the trade and essential government services. You can look at the wire news photos with the soldiers cleaning up the debris from the fallen trees on the main roads.

One such tactics is to fault the military for not helping the people enough, placing the words in the mouth of the anti-regime trishaw driver (imagine a taxi driver a la Burmese) and the First Lady of U.S.

The darker side of the story is that the Burmese military government might be wrong in thinking that the natural disaster and its efforts might be in its favor, resulting in the approval of the constitutional draft.

We will have to see the true attitude of the Burmese people towards the military and their appreciation of its relief efforts when the referendum poll results from the worst-hit areas are released in the future.

Can the Burmese military win back ??? as it did win until the mid 1980???s ??? the hearts and minds of its people in addition to winning t

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Myanmar bloggers help build 'Budget Huts' in delta

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Posted By: Suray B. Prasai @ 05/27/2008 12:26:22 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/23/2008 11:46:24 AM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 9:59:13 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 9:58:13 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 9:43:03 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 9:01:40 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 8:00:57 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 7:07:04 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 5:52:04 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 5:44:18 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 5:10:24 PM

Posted By: nyeinc @ 05/10/2008 5:08:26 PM

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