Une Année Horrible

Second, for all his mistakes, Sarkozy seems to favor a viable approach to reform, one that falls somewhere between a flat-out Thatcherite assault on all opposition and Chirac's timidity in the face of the street. Compared with the revolution Sarkozy originally promised, this pragmatic approach—which involves paying off some subjects of reform, for example by financially compensating workers obliged to forfeit early retirement—may seem timid. But it's also the only strategy that could possibly work in France. Sarkozy's moves so far—he has liberalized the university system, streamlined the judiciary, modernized the unemployment agency and extended working hours—have all been modest. But if he can maintain this deliberate pace for the rest of his five-year term, and direct his energies toward trade unions, the labor market, health care and defense, he just might wind up with a respectable record in the end.

Finally, he stands to profit from a bit of calendar luck. From July to December of this year, France will hold the EU's rotating presidency, and in January 2009 Sarkozy will get to welcome a U.S. president and inaugurate a new era in transatlantic relations. Sarkozy is well positioned to capitalize on the change in Washington; the only two senators he met on a September 2006 trip to the United States were Barack Obama and John McCain.

All that said, Sarkozy's efforts to change France could still end in tears. But given his political talents, his relentless energy and the stakes involved, it would be a big mistake to write him off.

Gordon and Vaisse are senior fellows in foreign-policy studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

© 2008