Many in Turkey favor throwing out the present authoritarian model and replacing it with a modern "democratic, civilian" constitution incorporating EU norms. The Constitutional Court, however, might well strike down such a constitution on the grounds that it amends the unamendable parts of the present one. Such a chess game could go on indefinitely, but sooner or later the two real powers in the land—the generals and the people—will speak. The generals have made it clear they side with the court. After all, they have crushed four governments since 1960 and this would merely be a fifth. On previous occasions a majority of Turks would probably have backed military intervention, had they been asked. Today polls say a clear majority is opposed. This makes the present political situation unprecedented.
Nor could the generals necessarily rely on the Army. In 2003 and 2004 some senior four-star generals planned a coup, but the idea apparently found little support among their juniors. Further, the conscripts at other ranks are the sons of those opposed to intervention.
That leaves the people. In my observation, ordinary Turks "get" democracy and are jealous of their prerogatives. Certainly they have always voted to defy what post-coup preferences the generals have expressed when handing power back to civilians. Most notably in 1983, when they rejected the generals' candidates and chose Turgut Ozal. Over the past year, the possibility of a coup to remove AK and Erdogan has frequently been discussed in the press, but few have considered how the majority of the Turkish people might react—a majority that has seen the success of various color revolutions on television. The Turkish people have the power to decide, if they choose. The question is, will they?
So far, the Turks are not headed for the streets. What they really want is peace and quiet, and economic opportunity for themselves and their children, a prospect AK Party's successful stewardship of the Turkish economy has finally started to offer. They will not thank anyone for upsetting the apple cart. This, I suspect, is why we have yet to see the normally pugnacious Erdogan breathing fire and defiance. Reflecting his supporters' views, he would rather not put the last five years of progress at risk. The question is whether Turkey's secular establishment—its courts, bureaucracy, and generals—will cede at least some power gracefully, or decline to give an inch and chance the people's reaction.
The EU has made clear that the removal of a duly elected government, and therefore any constitution permitting it, is unacceptable in a nation seeking membership. The Bush administration is sitting on the fence. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, standing beside Turkey's AK Party Foreign Minister Ali Babacan earlier this month, said: "Turkey will, of course, resolve its issues through its democratic process." Sadly, there is nothing inevitable about it. Someone should ask Rice whether she supports Turkey having a "democratic process" at all.
© 2008
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