The Car of the Future

Pure-electric vehicles also will hit the road, but in much smaller numbers. Nissan and Mitsubishi will roll out electric cars aimed at urban drivers. Tesla, the Silicon Valley start-up, plans to add a $50,000 electric luxury sedan to compliment its $98,000 roadster. But even with new battery technology, electric cars will still require hours of recharging time, which makes them less convenient than hybrids and conventional cars. "Hybrids will be mainstream," says J.D. Power analyst Mike Omotoso. "But electric vehicles will just be a niche vehicle for people in large urban areas, mostly on the coasts."

Diesel cars also could come on strong, since they offer a 25 percent to 30 percent boost in mileage over conventional cars. And the diesel option is cheaper—between $2,000 and $3,000—than going hybrid, which costs about an extra $4,500. That's why J.D. Power predicts diesels will outsell hybrids and command 8 percent of the U.S. market by 2013, up from 3 percent now.

Not everyone agrees, though. The diesel downside: a bad rep for being clanky, smelly and belching smog-forming pollution. That's why they aren't sold in some states with strict green laws, like California. Honda and European automakers are working on clean diesels that will overcome those problems. But soaring prices are eroding diesel's attraction. A gallon of diesel currently averages $4.80, 72 cents more than gasoline and nearly $2 more than a gallon of diesel cost a year ago. "People will do the calculations on diesel," says Wolkonowicz, "and it won't add up."

The fact is, most tire kickers in 2013 will still choose conventional cars. But they'll have green touches, like solar panels in the roof or dashboard. And they'll be powered by smaller engines that manage to squeeze out more mileage and muscle at the same time. Many will be equipped with four-cylinder engines that directly spray a fine mist of gasoline into the cylinders to save on fuel and are augmented by turbochargers to boost horsepower. Ford says its version of this engine, which it calls EcoBoost, can jack up fuel economy by 20 percent. Such an engine could power future Mustangs, giving the pony car better mileage without losing much giddy up.

Yes, there will still be muscle cars in five years; they'll just be leaner and more efficient. (Think Michael Phelps instead of Barry Bonds). In fact, just about all cars will go on a diet. Minivans will be replaced by mini-minivans, which will still seat seven, but in a footprint about the size of a Toyota Corolla. (Maybe we'd better go on a diet, too.) SUVs will give way to CUVs, or crossover utility vehicles, which will still ride high, but on smoother-riding car chassis that is better on gas. (Think Nissan Murano or Ford Edge). Big family cars will be overtaken by smaller sedans like the Honda Civic, now the No. 1 selling car in America. Economy cars will lose ground to even smaller models like the Toyota Yaris, which gets 36mpg on the highway.

But as we downsize, we'll bring along our outsized expectations. That means small cars will no longer be Spartan affairs. They'll be loaded with leather, surround sound, Bluetooth-enabled, voice-activated entertainment systems with GPS navigation providing real-time traffic conditions while making your dinner reservations for you. Of course all of this luxury in such a small package will drive up the price. "Don't be surprised, by 2013, to be paying $22,000 for a compact car that today costs $15,000," says Wolkonowicz.

Our rides will definitely be different in five years, but the highways won't be transformed. That will take a little longer, but as Honda proved this week with Clarity, it is inevitable. "You probably won't be able to just go to your dealer in 2013 and buy a hydrogen fuel-cell car," says Wolkonowicz. "But if you push the clock ahead to 2030, it's very possible that they could be the dominant car on the road." The road to our hydrogen future may be long. But smaller, more fuel-efficient cars are just around the corner.

© 2008