Emmanuel Dunand / AFP-Getty Images
The new Newsweek poll shows Obama gaining ground among Hillary Clinton supporters.
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Barack’s Bounce

The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows the Democrat with a 15-point lead over McCain.

 

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Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. "They were in a pitched battle, and that's going to impact things. Now that we've gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they've been talking about," said Hugick.

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama's current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP's poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. "Those results should give people pause," Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the "surge" first—could alter the Republican's fortunes.

For now, however, Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore, who both failed in their bids to win the White House. In a July 2004 NEWSWEEK Poll, Kerry led Bush by only 6 points (51 percent to 45 percent). In June 2000, Gore was in a dead heat with Bush (45 percent to 45 percent)—which is essentially where he ended up when that razor-thin election was finally decided.

Most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far. Random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results. The NEWSWEEK survey of 1,010 adults nationwide on June 18 and 19, 2008, has a margin of error of 4 points. But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin.

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: Davole @ 07/19/2008 1:11:11 AM

    The Hill July 17, 2008 @3:57 p.m. by Walter Alarkon

    Voinovich Finds Gore's Energy Speech 'Ridiculous'

    You can consider Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio) as definitely not enthused by former Vice President Al Gore's speech Thursday on U.S. energy policy.
    Voinovich had an initial one-word response ??? "ridiculous" ??? to Gore's speech at Washington's Constitution Hall, in which the Democrat called for the United States to end its dependence on carbon-based fuels and begin using renewable energy to produce electricity within the next 10 years.

    Voinovich elaborated that ruling out carbon-based fuels such as coal would be unreasonable because of the country's vast energy and economic needs. Instead, he said the country should take a multi-pronged approach that includes but doesn't rely solely on nuclear, wind and solar power.

    "We could put windmills from the Atlantic to the Pacific and, yes, it will increase the amount of carbon-free energy production, but the fact of the matter is, it's not going to get the job done," Voinovich said. "What we need to do is to look at all of the various sources of energy??? We'd be much more realistic to realize that it's going to take all of these things in order for us to meet our energy demands."

  • Posted By: Davole @ 07/18/2008 9:55:05 PM

    Perfect... Gore Takes Fleet of Gas Guzzlers to Global Warming Sermon

    http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/07/perfect-gore-takes...

    21 hours ago in Gateway Pundit · Authority: 1,845

    Saint Al spaketh-- The final days are upon us. The Goracle told fellow GW religionists that the US is doomed and that we must eliminate carbon-based energy sources. The end is near. ...We are a planet doomed by carbon abuse.

    It's too bad the Goracle's actions don't match his sermons. Americans for Prosperity have today's Gore hypocrisy video of the day, via Michelle Malkin:

    Americans for Prosperity reported that Gore brought a fleet of two Lincoln Town Cars and a Chevy Suburban SUV! Even worse, the driver of the Town Car that eventually whisked away Gore's wife and daughter left the engine idling and the AC cranking for 20 minutes before they finally left!

    Sacrifice for thee but not for me!
    To the Gore's sacrifice is only intended for the little people. You just can't make this stuff up.

    Bad News for the Goracle... The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change.

    Bob McCarty notes how TIME is sucking up to Gore.

  • Posted By: Davole @ 07/18/2008 11:45:08 AM

    My commentary -

    Here we have proof that a democrat governor and a democrat mayor are blatantly unable to protect the security of the citizens of Chicago, Barack Obama???s campaign headquarter city.

    Barack Obama prides himself on his supposed past record of being a community organizer.
    Why hasn???t he bothered to work constructively to provide safety for the people who live in Chicago?
    Maybe he regards his campaign to be president as far more important than dedicating his efforts to actually help and protect the residents of Chicago.

    It is evident from the press report which I posted that the democrat governor of Illinois and the mayor of Chicago have not even realized that it would be advantageous to meet to discuss strategy to effect security.

    In November???s general election, would American society be willing to relinquish their security concerns for the whole nation to a like-minded inept federal democrat government?

    What would be the cost to the nation to redirect and burden the various State police forces and the National Guard with the added task of providing personal security for all Americans?

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