Separatist Movements May Not Be Contagious, After All

Will Kosovo's independence prove contagious, inspiring breakaway regions across the world to declare statehood? Many EU countries refuse to recognize Europe's newest nation-state for fear of stirring up separatism in their own backyards—the Spanish fret about Basque country, the Georgians worry over Abkhazia, and the Moldovans get anxious about Trans-Dniester. But in at least one long-running regional conflict, on the isle of Cyprus, Kosovo's independence has coincided with new hope for resolving the three-decade-old division of the island between Greeks and Turks.

Ever since communist leader Demetris Christofias became president of the Greek side in February, momentum has been growing for a settlement. A deal was signed in March to start full-fledged peace talks aimed at bringing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, or TRNC—recognized by only a handful of nations, principally Turkey—back into the fold of a new, bi-ethnic Republic of Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots backed a U.N.-inspired unification plan in 2004, only to have it rejected by the Greek Cypriots and an old generation of nationalistic leaders. By contrast, the 52-year-old Christofias was elected on a fervently pro-unification platform—as was his counterpart, 48-year-old TRNC President Mehmet Ali Talat. "We will roll up our sleeves and work hard so that our island is reunified," Christofias promised soon after his election.

Kosovo's example has focused minds on both sides, says Greek Cypriot commentator Makarios Drousiotis, because it provides a framework for North Cyprus's recognition as an independent state if unification talks break down. "If we can't solve this problem, life will solve it," he says. "If no common ground is found within a year, de facto separation will become permanent."

Key points of discord remain, though, mainly over Greek property rights to houses in Northern Cyprus abandoned when the Turkish Army invaded the island in 1974. The rights of settlers from the Turkish mainland, who were encouraged to move to Cyprus by Ankara's government, are also a moot point. But there's momentum building behind a consensus. "People do think that this is the moment that we can make it," U.N. Under Secretary for Political Affairs Lynn Pascoe said last week. "We can get there this time."

Kosovo's road to independence—with its patchy international recognition, the declaration of a separate Serbian assembly in ethnic Serb areas and simmering ethnic tensions—has been anything but smooth. Kosovo's travails seem to have inspired the Cypriots to reconcile their differences rather than following Yugoslavia's unhappy example.

© 2008