LIVING POLITICS
Howard Fineman
Poll Position
How you (and the candidates) should judge the numbers.
June polls of a horserace that ends in November aren't "reliably predictive," as the survey experts say. So why are Republicans so ballistic about new surveys, including Newsweek's, that show Sen. Barack Obama with a big lead?
The first and simplest answer is that Sen. John McCain needs to persuade—quickly—skeptical Republicans of all stripes that he has what it takes to beat a phenom with tons of cash. Even though it's four months to Election Day, McCain needs to generate some genuine confidence inside GOP ranks if he is to have a chance in November.
McCain has spent the last many days hammering Obama on energy policy, and his campaign is hoping to show some results from the effort, if for no other reason than to impress Republicans with money that the campaign knows what it is up to.
The conventional wisdom—based, in good measure, on the ongoing Gallup Tracking Poll—has been that the race is dead even and likely to remain that way for months, and that the early, long-distance exchanges between Obama and McCain have had little effect. That was my thinking, too, that the race would "break" late and take its true shape only after voters get to see Obama and McCain face off against each other in person.
Ironically, the Obama campaign is concerned about the polls from the other direction: They don't like the dead-even Gallup Tracking Poll. They have their own skeptical funders to impress, the ones who supported Hillary Clinton. So the Obama camp is focusing on specific numbers rather than the horserace per se. In a meeting with reporters today, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, showed a PowerPoint centering on women voters, independents and red states that the campaign hopes to turn blue.
But two new polls—our latest NEWSWEEK poll and an even newer one from The Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News—run counter to the conventional wisdom. They show Obama with wide leads, of 15 points and 12 points respectively.
The response to our poll was predictably nasty. Trent Lott, who left the Senate to become a Washington lobbyist, struck first. "I doubt the accuracy of that poll," he declared. "It is in Newsweek, after all." A day later, Karl Rove, George W. Bush's "architect" and now a Washington political consultant, chose one of the late George Carlin's seven dirty words to describe the quality of our poll in a private meeting with Republicans on the Hill (and he's an occasional contributor to Newsweek!).
Some of our competitors dismissed our survey, too, although they used a more polite, technical term: We were an "outlier." But then the LAT/Bloomberg numbers appeared yesterday, and the universe of "outliers" expanded. Maybe I missed it, but I haven't heard from Lott and Rove on this.
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Member Comments
Posted By: djgreeneyes1959 @ 09/28/2008 5:45:34 PM
Comment:
I am a normal middle class citizen of the United States and a former democrat.
I do not trust Obama on any issue. He seems to keep piggy backing and drawing from McCains efforts. Everytime McCain makes a statement Obama did it first. Isn't anyone catching this pattern? Doesn't any one listen as he stutters to find words to appease with out giving any kind of actual details. My goodness he couldn't even recall the name of the soldier whose bracelet he was given with out referring to his notes. He reads from notes not from his heart. He is only a puppet of the party.
Obama is all about HIM HIM HIM. He makes it out like he single handedly controlled and influenced the bailout bill results ( over the phone non the less) Mc Cain is all about AMAERICA FIRST. He does claim he was involved, which he washe was there, but he admits it was a group effort ( democrats and republicans working together) giving credit where credit is due. Not just to himself.
I believe Mcain CAN and WILL UNITE the parties to take care of the American people.
Yes I believe the bail out is a necessity if we as the United States of America are to survive. Although we the American people did not cause the crises, as we have not caused the world disasters or the problems with the world countries we have bailed out. Why are we so quick to rush to the aid of others yet hesitate to take care of our own. I do not understand. As a United Nation we can overcome, divided we will fail.
On the national security issue. I am extremely concerned. We need McCains experience, knowledge and his relationships with key players. I believe our enemys are waiting in the shadows ready to pounce if Obama gets into office. He is weak in this area and they know it.
We are Americans and we need McCain to keep us STRONG. I want to commend those that are supporting McCain as this shows the strength and backbone of our American heritage. The questions I would like to ask the people of the United States that support Obama are: How well do you REALLY know him, other than what you hear from his group of cronies? Don't you think the people he has been, and is today associated with is any indication of who he really is? You can't just turn your back on the people in your life as it suites your needs for example claiming to know nothing of the radical side of his associates whose efforts he supported in the past.
PLEASE. Americans are not that naive.
I am not denying that Obama is an intelligent educated individual. But he lacks the experience and knowledge to lead this counrty in the crucial times of this errra. Maybe in 8 years after he has watched and studied the MAVERICKS at work he may be ready.
Posted By: djgreeneyes1959 @ 09/28/2008 5:41:24 PM
Comment:
I am a normal middle class citizen of the United States and a former democrat.
I do not trust Obama on any issue. He seems to keep piggy backing and drawing from McCains efforts. Everytime McCain makes a statement Obama did it first. Isn't anyone catching this pattern? Doesn't any one listen as he stutters to find words to appease with out giving any kind of actual details. My goodness he couldn't even recall the name of the soldier whose bracelet he was given with out referring to his notes. He reads from notes not from his heart. He is only a puppet of the party.
Obama is all about HIM HIM HIM. He makes it out like he single handedly controlled and influenced the bailout bill results ( over the phone non the less) Mc Cain is all about AMAERICA FIRST. He does claim he was involved, which he washe was there, but he admits it was a group effort ( democrats and republicans working together) giving credit where credit is due. Not just to himself.
I believe Mcain CAN and WILL UNITE the parties to take care of the American people.
Yes I believe the bail out is a necessity if we as the United States of America are to survive. Although we the American people did not cause the crises, as we have not caused the world disasters or the problems with the world countries we have bailed out. Why are we so quick to rush to the aid of others yet hesitate to take care of our own. I do not understand. As a United Nation we can overcome, divided we will fail.
On the national security issue. I am extremely concerned. We need McCains experience, knowledge and his relationships with key players. I believe our enemys are waiting in the shadows ready to pounce if Obama gets into office. He is weak in this area and they know it.
We are Americans and we need McCain to keep us STRONG. I want to commend those that are supporting McCain as this shows the strength and backbone of our American heritage. The questions I would like to ask the people of the United States that support Obama are: How well do you REALLY know him, other than what you hear from his group of cronies? Don't you think the people he has been, and is today associated with is any indication of who he really is? You can't just turn your back on the people in your life as it suites your needs for example claiming to know nothing of the radical side of his associates whose efforts he supported in the past.
PLEASE. Americans are not that naive.
I am not denying that Obama is an intelligent educated individual. But he lacks the experience and knowledge to lead this counrty in the crucial times of this errra. Maybe in 8 years after he has watched and studied the MAVERICKS at work he may be ready.
Posted By: Omaar @ 08/20/2008 7:20:01 PM
Comment: There are More (Whites) on Welfare than Anyother Race in America.
You Hate Black Americans and Blame them for the USA's Doll System, when they ONLY make up 15% of the US Population..
Code Word: Working Stiff, Hard Working White Males Huh...WRONG !!
Don't even try to Justify WELFARE, with the White Racist EASY WAY OUT WORD...
"Dispropoertionate" It has'nt WORKED yet !!!
If My Race is the Majority and 20-25% of them in a Given State are on Government Asst. Thats Far More Telling than a race that makes up Only 15% of the Population.
Working Stiff...How Many Races (Collectively) make up the "Working Stiff" Demographic..Many thats what and that Exceeds Whites Only...
You've been Listening to the KKK, Aryan Nation, The Nazi Party and Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Anne Coulter...Much Too Long .
You don't make the Millions they do, But they sure as hell, Convinced You, that You Do...
Most Whites are Not Rich and Sufficently Educated and they also have a Large Segment of White On White Violent Crimes, Do not llok at the Local News and SEE the FACTS ?
Or is it, You Only Focus on Blacks and Latino American Violent Crimes.
I Look at it All and its All Out of Control.
Your kind of Mindset Disgust Me...
You'll Talk about OJ Simpson as being a Murderer, which he is...
But Close your EYES & MIND from Scott (Wife & Child Killer) Peterson, Drew (Multiple Wife Killer) Petersen, Robert (The Bunny Bakley Killer) Blake and Phil (Shoot Her in The Mouth) Spector and Dismiss them With TOTAL SILENCE
They are All Killers To Me and Most Decent People and Drew Petersen Still has'nt been Charged with a Murser yet, if he were Black or latino...His Ass would be Placed Under the Prison for All Times.
Clean Your Worthless Mind, Body and Soul..You Mongrel !!!